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CAPPERKING1

@CAPPERKING001778 followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 9 h before start

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Tipster index49.1#418 on the leaderboarddown 65 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
46.4%
expected 46.9%
Edge
−0.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 42.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
373
173-200
ROI
+4.1%
on 280 picks with odds · max drawdown −26.41 u
Average odds
1.77
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W8, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-5052 Aug23 Aug13 Sept4 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Tennis104-104 · 208 graded
−5.4
50%
Baseball39-45 · 84 graded
+6.9
46%
NFL & NCAAF11-28 · 39 graded
+2.1
28%
Football17-12 · 29 graded
+9.9
59%
Basketball1-10 · 11 graded
−4.9
9%
Hockey1-1 · 2 graded
+19.7
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result136-112 · 248 graded
−1.7
55%
Parlays11-73 · 84 graded
+0.9
13%
Totals13-9 · 22 graded
−7.0
59%
Handicap9-3 · 12 graded
+25.8
75%
Both teams to score4-3 · 7 graded
+0.2
57%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite78-36 · 114 graded
+0.6
68%
Even78-80 · 158 graded
−2.6
49%
Underdog6-11 · 17 graded
+5.0
35%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5054-20 · 74 graded
+1.4%
73%
1.50…1.8949-48 · 97 graded
−14.5%
51%
1.90…2.2932-18 · 50 graded
+28.5%
64%
2.30…3.494-2 · 6 graded
+74.2%
67%
3.50+1-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +1.8 pp
    71-71 · 50%
    ROI +6.1%
  • September 2026
    −2.4 pp
    65-69 · 49%
    ROI −10.0%
  • October 2026
    −1.2 pp
    37-60 · 38%
    ROI +18.7%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:20 · 11 h before start
odds 2.32Lost
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel: Qualification·
Rinky Hijikata
1:2
Yannick Hanfmann
Rinky Hijikata to win@2.32
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:20 · 13 h before start
odds 2.20Won
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel: Qualification·
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
2:0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.20 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:20 · 3 h before start
odds 2.04Won
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo): Qualification·
Kimberly Birrell
0:2
Daria Kasatkina
Daria Kasatkina to win@2.04
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.04 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:20 · 1 h before start
odds 2.07Lost
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo): Qualification·
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
2:0
Kamilla Rakhimova
Kamilla Rakhimova to win@2.07
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:15 · 13 h before start
odds 1.48Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Lorenzo Musetti
2:0
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz to win@1.48
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:15 · 15 h before start
odds 1.82Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Jan-Lennard Struff
1:2
Tallon Griekspoor
Tallon Griekspoor to win@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:15 · 12 h before start
Lost
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna): Qualification·
Lorenzo Sonego
1:2
Jacob Fearnley
Lorenzo Sonego to win
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:15 · 13 h before start
odds 1.37Void
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna): Qualification·
Fabian Marozsan
void
Tomas Machac
Tomas Machac to win@1.37
Open on Xexpected 70% from odds
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:15 · 9 h before start
odds 1.30Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Elena Rybakina
2:0
Leylah Fernandez
Elena Rybakina to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds+0.30 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:15 · 4 h before start
Lost
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Ashlyn Krueger
0:2
Katerina Siniakova
Ashlyn Krueger to win
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:15 · 5 h before start
odds 1.57Won
WTA 250 · Guangzhou Open: Qualification·
Dayana Yastremska
2:0
Emerson Jones
Dayana Yastremska to win@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.57 u
Parlay · 4posted 24 Oct, 22:52 · 37 min before start
odds 19.67Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
125:121
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets to win@4.60✕
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
127:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +12.5@1.91✓
NBA · Regular season·
Chicago Bulls
120:124
Washington Wizards
Chicago Bulls to win@1.83✕
NBA · Regular season·
Phoenix Suns
131:122
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns to win@1.22✓
Open on Xexpected 4% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:09 · 5 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
WTA 250 · Guangzhou Open: Qualification·
Elena Pridankina
2:0
Tyra Caterina Grant
Tyra Caterina Grant to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:09 · 12 h before start
odds 1.91Won
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel: Qualification·
Sebastian Baez
1:2
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 12 h before start
odds 1.48Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Tommy Paul
0:2
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz to win@1.48
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.48 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 14 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Francisco Cerundolo
1:2
Tallon Griekspoor
Francisco Cerundolo to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 13 h before start
Void
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Daniil Medvedev
void
Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik to win
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 10 h before start
odds 1.36Lost
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Nikoloz Basilashvili
2:1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win@1.36
Open on Xexpected 70% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 10 h before start
odds 1.46Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Elena Rybakina
2:0
Diana Shnaider
Elena Rybakina to win@1.46
Open on Xexpected 66% from odds+0.46 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 5 h before start
Won
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Ann Li
1:2
Ashlyn Krueger
Ashlyn Krueger to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 7 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Leylah Fernandez
2:0
Marie Bouzkova
Marie Bouzkova to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:07 · 15 h before start
odds 1.77Won
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna): Qualification·
Corentin Moutet
0:2
Tomas Machac
Tomas Machac to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Parlay · 2posted 22 Oct, 21:11 · 2 h before start
odds 2.15Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers to win@1.64✓
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.31✓
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.15 u
Parlay · 5posted 21 Oct, 15:28 · 8 h before start
odds 22.93Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@2.37✓
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz to win@2.15✕
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win@1.79✓
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
128:110
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets to win@1.38✓
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers to win@1.83✓
Open on Xexpected 3% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 21 Oct, 13:50 · 9 h before start
odds 18.86Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@2.20✓
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz to win@2.02✕
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win@1.64✓
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers to win@1.69✓
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
121:96
Sacramento Kings
LA Clippers to win@1.53✓
Open on Xexpected 4% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 21 Oct, 13:26 · 10 h before start
odds 11.87Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win@1.58✓
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic to win@1.73✕
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win@1.85✕
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +13.5@1.56✕
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +6.5@1.51✓
Open on Xexpected 7% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 21 Oct, 13:02 · 4 h before start
odds 73.99Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Lille
2:4
Galatasaray
Lille to win@2.31✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Como 1907
4:1
Manchester United
Manchester United to win@3.00✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Bayern Munich
2:2
Arsenal
Arsenal to win@3.15✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Club Brugge
3:0
Lens
Club Brugge to win@1.96✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Betis
1:0
Feyenoord
Real Betis to win@1.71✓
Open on Xexpected 1% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 20 Oct, 00:42 · 2 h before start
odds 3.30Lost
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Ann Li
2:1
Emerson Jones
Ann Li to win@1.32✓
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Jelena Ostapenko
void
Belinda Bencic
Belinda Bencic to win@1.67∅
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Arthur Fery
0:2
Borna Gojo
Arthur Fery to win@1.55✕
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Jan-Lennard Struff
2:0
Marcos Giron
Jan-Lennard Struff to win@1.61✓
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Sonay Kartal
void
Kimberly Birrell
Kimberly Birrell to win@1.55∅
Open on Xexpected 26% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:48 · 13 h before start
odds 1.64Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Botic van de Zandschulp
0:2
Clement Chidekh
Botic van de Zandschulp to win@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:48 · 15 h before start
odds 1.43Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Daniel Altmaier
2:1
Titouan Droguet
Titouan Droguet to win@1.43
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds−1.00 u