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Brandon

@brandonsachs_367 followersfirst pick 8 Augusually posts 3 h before start

Founder @GutCheckBet, grading Polymarket's tennis bettors. Tennis + NBA handicapper @Pickswise | ATP picks 22-13-2

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Tipster index54.7#191 on the leaderboardup 69 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks +6.5@2.00
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
-:-
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5@2.00
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Daniil Medvedev
-:-
Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik to win +1
Hit rate
53.8%
expected 46.1%
Edge
+7.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 32.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
13
7-6 · 4 pending
ROI
+15.5%
on 12 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.97
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W3, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1-0.500.517 Aug26 Aug15 Sept4 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Tennis6-5 · 11 graded
+9.2
55%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
+0.0
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap4-1 · 5 graded
+27.7
80%
Totals1-3 · 4 graded
−27.1
25%
Match result2-1 · 3 graded
+24.3
67%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−1.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even6-4 · 10 graded
+7.3
60%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+14.8
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-3 · 7 graded
−0.7%
57%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −30.4 pp
    0-3 · 0%
  • September 2026
    +20.5 pp
    3-1 · 75%
  • October 2026
    +18.5 pp
    4-2 · 67%
    ROI +42.1%

By league

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Picks

Same-game combo · 2posted 23 Oct, 19:53 · 17 h before start
Pending
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Daniil Medvedev
-:-
Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik to win◷
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Daniil Medvedev
-:-
Alexander Bublik
Over 22.5 games◷
Open on Xexpected 15% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:25 · 44 min before start
odds 3.03Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Flavio Cobolli
2:1
Brandon Nakashima
Flavio Cobolli to win@3.03
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds+2.03 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:58 · 10 h before start
odds 2.00Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
-:-
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 12:41 · 10 h before start
odds 2.00Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks +6.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds
Singleposted 22 Oct, 23:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder −7.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 04:35 · 20 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
128:110
Dallas Mavericks
Under 230.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 00:45 · 9 h before start
odds 1.92Won
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Carlos Alcaraz
2:0
Jiri Lehecka
Carlos Alcaraz −1.5 sets@1.92
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.92 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 09:00 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Pending
ATP 500 · China Open·
Novak Djokovic
live
Daniil Medvedev
Novak Djokovic +2.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds
Singleposted 5 Oct, 05:03 · 5 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Jiri Lehecka
2:0
Valentin Vacherot
Over 22.5 games@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 03:35 · 4 h before start
odds 1.69Won
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Carlos Alcaraz
2:1
Jaume Munar
Carlos Alcaraz −4.5@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 17:28 · 51 min before start
odds 1.68Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:1
Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton +1.5 sets@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 23:00 · 59 min before start
odds 1.96Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Alexander Zverev −6.5@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.96 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 18:29 · 3 h before start
odds 1.63Void
US Open · Men's Singles·
Karen Khachanov
void
Alexander Blockx
Karen Khachanov to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds
Singleposted 8 Sept, 17:41 · 44 min before start
odds 1.68Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Frances Tiafoe
3:2
Alex Michelsen
Frances Tiafoe to win@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.68 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 17:41 · 9 h before start
odds 1.69Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Ben Shelton
3:2
Carlos Alcaraz
Over 37.5 games@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 9 Aug, 01:32 · 22 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
WTA 1000 · Canadian Open·
Elina Svitolina
2:0
Amanda Anisimova
Over 21.5 games@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Aug, 01:32 · 22 min before start
odds 2.44Lost
WTA 1000 · Canadian Open·
Elina Svitolina
2:0
Amanda Anisimova
Amanda Anisimova to win@2.44
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 8 Aug, 15:22 · 1 h before start
Lost
WTA 1000 · Canadian Open·
Marta Kostyuk
1:2
Iga Swiatek
Over 44 games✕
WTA 1000 · Canadian Open·
Marta Kostyuk
1:2
Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek to win✓
Open on Xexpected 1% by model