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Bookbreaker AI

@bookbreakerai80 followersfirst pick 18 Octusually posts 1 h before start

Every game simulated 25,000 times against the sharpest markets. Free sim replays. Subscribers get every edge. Every pick tracked publicly. 21+

NFL & NCAAFBasketballHockey
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Tipster index49.7#367 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
-:-
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.24
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 50.4%
Edge
−0.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 31.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
16
8-8 · 1 pending
ROI
−0.5%
on 13 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.74
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.300.30.50.817 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
−11.3
50%
Basketball2-4 · 6 graded
−5.4
33%
Hockey3-1 · 4 graded
+23.3
75%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result8-4 · 12 graded
+9.7
67%
Parlays0-3 · 3 graded
−24.5
0%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−50.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-0 · 3 graded
+25.6
100%
Even5-5 · 10 graded
−1.1
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-0 · 3 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.893-3 · 6 graded
−12.5%
50%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −0.4 pp
    8-8 · 50%
    ROI −0.5%

By league

  • NFL3-350%−11.3
  • NBA2-433%−5.4
  • NHL3-175%+23.3

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:52 · 2 days before start
odds 2.24Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
-:-
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.24
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:45 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:44 · 1 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
4:0
Florida Panthers
Pittsburgh Penguins to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Parlay · 2posted 22 Oct, 21:43 · 1 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over 236.5✕
Open on Xexpected 22% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:08 · 3 h before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:08 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:51 · 2 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:50 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Ottawa Senators to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Parlay · 2posted 21 Oct, 21:49 · 2 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Over 241.5✕
Open on Xexpected 21% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:52 · 4 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:51 · 5 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
2:6
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 20 Oct, 21:50 · 1 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 231.5✕
Open on Xexpected 30% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:11 · 1 h before start
odds 1.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line+0.24 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:18 · 1 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
3:1
San Jose Sharks
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:16 · 1 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:41 · 44 min before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line+0.40 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:40 · 44 min before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Open on Xexpected 78% from the closing line+0.23 u