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Jack Jones

@betfirmsjack21.5K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 8 h before start

I'm a sports handicapper who covers the NFL, NBA, MLB, college football and NCAA basketball.

BaseballNFL & NCAAFBasketball
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Tipster index37.0#726 on the leaderboarddown 46 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
40.7%
expected 50.5%
Edge
−9.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 30.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
60
24-35-1
ROI
−26.3%
on 40 picks with odds · max drawdown −14.77 u
Average odds
1.96
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W7, worst L12

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10-7.5-5-2.5031 Jul23 Aug15 Sept8 Oct30 Oct

By sport

Baseball14-27 · 41 graded
−14.6
34%
NFL & NCAAF8-7-1 · 16 graded
−1.3
53%
Basketball2-1 · 3 graded
+13.4
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result8-16 · 24 graded
−15.2
33%
Totals6-15-1 · 22 graded
−21.7
29%
Handicap10-4 · 14 graded
+17.3
71%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-2-1 · 7 graded
+1.9
67%
Even17-31 · 48 graded
−14.7
35%
Underdog3-2 · 5 graded
+22.9
60%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.899-12 · 21 graded
−21.3%
43%
1.90…2.294-12 · 16 graded
−50.6%
25%
2.30…3.492-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −25.7 pp
    6-19 · 24%
    ROI −48.0%
  • September 2026
    −10.5 pp
    8-12 · 40%
    ROI −23.8%
  • October 2026
    +19.5 pp
    10-4-1 · 71%
    ROI +62.8%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 30 Oct, 19:30 · 4 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
98:93
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 15:03 · 9 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
91:104
Denver Nuggets
Over 240.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 16:50 · 6 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
21:35
Delaware Blue Hens
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers −1
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 02:47 · 14 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
21:27
New York Giants
Houston Texans −10
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:30 · 5 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
81:128
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:18 · 9 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
24:30
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State Aggies −2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 04:34 · 12 h before start
Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Over 39
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 18:55 · 21 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
SMU Mustangs
23:13
Virginia Cavaliers
SMU Mustangs −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 18:55 · 29 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Syracuse Orange
26:34
Louisville Cardinals
Syracuse Orange to win
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 15:47 · 8 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 17:41 · 28 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon State Beavers
66:14
San Diego State Aztecs
Oregon State Beavers −15
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:32 · 8 h before start
odds 2.48Won
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.48
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.48 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 15:29 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:13 · 38 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
24:18
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +11.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 13:54 · 3 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals +7
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:21 · 9 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:0
Boston Red Sox
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 32% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 03:23 · 14 h before start
odds 1.82Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
19:17
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:12 · 20 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
North Carolina State Wolfpack
41:31
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State Mountaineers +14
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 15:09 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
6:1
Colorado Rockies
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 16:31 · 10 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
7:0
San Diego Padres
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 04:59 · 12 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
17:24
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints +9
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 02:03 · 41 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
41:31
SMU Mustangs
Louisville Cardinals to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 15:42 · 8 h before start
odds 1.85Won
MLB·
Texas Rangers
3:4
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 15:29 · 4 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:1
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 17:55 · 8 h before start
odds 2.55Won
MLB·
Los Angeles Angels
2:1
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels to win@2.55
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds+1.55 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 16:42 · 7 h before start
odds 1.84Won
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
3:8
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.84
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.84 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 14:24 · 6 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles −6
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 02:15 · 21 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
28:10
San Diego State Aztecs
Over 54.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 06:11 · 19 h before start
Won
MLB·
Athletics
6:5
Seattle Mariners
Over 9.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 15:16 · 11 h before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
14:1
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u