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Tier 1 Sports Analysis

@Tier1Analysis143 followersfirst pick 17 Augusually posts 6 h before start

📊 Data-driven sports betting • Model-based picks • Transparent results 🤖 Powered by Edge 🎯 Join the FREE Discord 👇 IG/TikTok: @Tier1SportsAnalysis

BaseballNFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index41.3#374 on the leaderboarddown 79 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
46.2%
expected 51.2%
Edge
−5.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
169
78-91
ROI
−17.3%
on 157 picks with odds · max drawdown −31.44 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W6, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-15-10-5016 Aug30 Aug13 Sept27 Sept12 Oct

By sport

Baseball55-65 · 120 graded
−5.8
46%
NFL & NCAAF23-26 · 49 graded
−3.3
47%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result51-63 · 114 graded
−7.1
45%
Handicap25-24 · 49 graded
+1.1
51%
Totals2-4 · 6 graded
−17.0
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-1 · 5 graded
+19.0
80%
Even74-89 · 163 graded
−5.7
45%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−36.1
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8943-42 · 85 graded
−11.0%
51%
1.90…2.2927-43 · 70 graded
−22.6%
39%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −1.6 pp
    21-21 · 50%
    ROI −9.6%
  • September 2026
    −10.3 pp
    39-57 · 41%
    ROI −27.6%
  • October 2026
    +6.3 pp
    18-13 · 58%
    ROI +4.0%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 17:46 · 6 h before start
odds 1.89Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:11 · 8 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons −3.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:10 · 50 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:29 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
28:25
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils −5.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:26 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
19:38
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina Gamecocks +10.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:36 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Jose State Spartans
13:16
Wyoming Cowboys
San Jose State Spartans −4.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:31 · 5 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah State Aggies
17:16
Washington State Cougars
Utah State Aggies −3.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:31 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah State Aggies
17:16
Washington State Cougars
Utah State Aggies to win
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:05 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys −7.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 19:31 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
31:24
South Florida Bulls
South Florida Bulls +6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 19:15 · 4 h before start
odds 1.88Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Liberty Flames
35:3
Sam Houston State Bearkats
Liberty Flames −13.5@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.88 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 18:10 · 4 h before start
odds 1.66Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.66 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 20:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:24 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:06 · 4 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:44 · 16 min before start
odds 1.77Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
4:3
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 17:25 · 3 h before start
odds 1.82Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers −2.5@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:59 · 1 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys +3@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 16:25 · 4 h before start
odds 1.94Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
5:3
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 16:14 · 6 h before start
odds 1.75Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:0
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.75
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.75 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 16:03 · 8 h before start
odds 1.79Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres +1.5@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:47 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Florida Gators −5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:30 · 29 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
20:14
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers +6.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:17 · 43 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
23:56
Alabama Crimson Tide
Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 20:16 · 3 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 20:15 · 4 h before start
odds 1.70Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 19:46 · 3 h before start
odds 1.82Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Delaware Blue Hens
14:30
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames −6.5@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 20:36 · 3 h before start
odds 1.94Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 17:22 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
44:45
North Texas Mean Green
North Texas Mean Green −1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 20:14 · 6 h before start
odds 1.69Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:1
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u