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Machines Picks

@MachinesPicks76K followersfirst pick 19 Augusually posts 15 h before start

Sports handicapping since 2011 | 15 straight profitable years | 62.3% long-term win rate | 23,000+ lifetime units | Long-term record posted publicly

BaseballNFL & NCAAFFootballBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index37.0#590 on the leaderboarddown 80 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
45.7%
expected 57.8%
Edge
−12.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 32.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
37
16-19-2 · 1 pending
ROI
−17.9%
on 18 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.33 u
Average odds
1.82
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W3, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2018 Aug2 Sept17 Sept3 Oct18 Oct

By sport

Baseball10-6-1 · 17 graded
+8.5
63%
NFL & NCAAF4-12-1 · 17 graded
−34.2
25%
Football1-1 · 2 graded
−30.0
50%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+50.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result9-10 · 19 graded
−7.2
47%
Handicap4-8-2 · 14 graded
−28.9
33%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+3.9
67%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+50.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-6-1 · 13 graded
−20.4
50%
Even9-13-1 · 23 graded
−10.8
41%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+61.9
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.50…1.894-6 · 10 graded
−34.4%
40%
1.90…2.292-3 · 5 graded
−15.0%
40%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+0-0 · 0 graded
-
-

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −4.3 pp
    5-4-1 · 56%
    ROI −15.3%
  • September 2026
    −13.5 pp
    9-12-1 · 43%
    ROI −34.5%
  • October 2026
    −19.6 pp
    2-3 · 40%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 17 Oct, 09:03 · 10 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
34:24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 09:03 · 15 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
38:34
Navy Midshipmen
Navy Midshipmen to win
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 09:03 · 17 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sacramento State Hornets
7:48
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio Bobcats to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 09:03 · 10 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami RedHawks
34:14
Akron Zips
Akron Zips +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:45 · 2 h before start
odds 4.00Pending
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
-:-
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@4.00
Open on Xexpected 24% from odds
Singleposted 16 Oct, 13:23 · 11 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itVoid
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line
Singleposted 15 Oct, 19:35 · 4 h before start
odds 2.50Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 01:55 · 16 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
3:4
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves −1
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:44 · 35 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 15:22 · 2 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −6
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 03:17 · 17 h before start
odds 1.94DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
New York Yankees
2:10
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 22:28 · 37 min before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
New York Yankees
1:6
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 11:10 · 9 h before start
Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Indiana Fever
77:93
Washington Mystics
Indiana Fever over 51
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 17:19 · 2 h before start
Push
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bearcats
35:31
Miami RedHawks
Miami RedHawks +4
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 18:57 · 4 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
5:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 03:23 · 20 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
2:4
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line+1.14 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 22:45 · 45 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
38:0
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Over 51
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 22:45 · 3 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
35:13
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins +4
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 02:29 · 14 h before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
7:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 20:21 · 4 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
20:3
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 20:21 · 4 days before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
6:20
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 20:21 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nebraska Cornhuskers
34:7
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 02:27 · 15 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
6:3
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.60 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 12:32 · 2 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
55:0
Howard Bison
Over 51
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 12:32 · 11 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
77:7
Florida A&M Rattlers
Miami Hurricanes +4
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 12:32 · 3 days before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
31:36
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 15:48 · 2 h before start
odds 1.79DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
4:3
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.79 u
Singleposted 3 Sept, 10:11 · 33 h before start
odds 1.47DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga·
Real Betis
1:0
Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Sept, 02:56 · 20 h before start
Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
6:2
New York Mets
Under 9
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 28 Aug, 23:15 · 25 min before start
odds 1.47DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
6:1
Texas Rangers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.47 u