Arbitrary Anything

@arbitraryany362 followersfirst pick 5 Septusually posts 3 h before start

A statistical perspective on college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA, and more! Managed by @arbitanalytics

NFL & NCAAF

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Tipster index56.5#88 on the leaderboarddeveloping sample

Hit rate

66.7%

expected 55.3%

Edge

+11.4 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.2%, the edge is within noise

Graded

8-4

ROI

posts no odds

Average odds

singles with odds

Form

streak L2 · best W5, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF8-4 · 12 graded

+11.4

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result8-4 · 12 graded

+11.4

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even8-4 · 12 graded

+11.4

67%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks

September 2026
+28.9 pp
6-1 · 86%
October 2026
−13.2 pp
2-3 · 40%

By league

NCAAF8-373%+16.1
NFL0-10%−40.7

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Picks

Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:00 · 3 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 23:00

Kentucky Wildcats

35:34

LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers to win

Singleposted 2 Oct, 22:44 · 27 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·4 Oct, 01:30

Washington State Cougars

6:26

Fresno State Bulldogs

Fresno State Bulldogs to win

Singleposted 2 Oct, 18:16 · 2 days before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 20:25

San Francisco 49ers

24:14

Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos to win

Singleposted 2 Oct, 16:58 · 23 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 16:00

Air Force Falcons

14:9

Navy Midshipmen

Air Force Falcons to win

Singleposted 1 Oct, 21:26 · 27 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 00:00

Northwestern Wildcats

34:13

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State Nittany Lions to win

Singleposted 26 Sept, 20:34 · 3 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·27 Sept, 00:00

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

17:45

Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic Owls to win

Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:00 · 30 min before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 19:30

Iowa State Cyclones

17:31

Utah Utes

Utah Utes to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 18:58 · 1 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 20:00

Iowa Hawkeyes

55:0

Northern Iowa Panthers

Iowa Hawkeyes to win

Singleposted 19 Sept, 18:55 · 34 min before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·19 Sept, 19:30

Michigan Wolverines

52:17

UTEP Miners

Michigan Wolverines to win

Singleposted 12 Sept, 20:52 · 3 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·12 Sept, 23:45

Auburn Tigers

43:8

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Auburn Tigers to win

Singleposted 12 Sept, 13:30 · 3 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·12 Sept, 16:00

Oklahoma State Cowboys

39:31

Oregon Ducks

Oregon Ducks to win

Singleposted 5 Sept, 15:11 · 2 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·5 Sept, 17:00

Kentucky Wildcats

45:13

Youngstown State Penguins

Kentucky Wildcats to win