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Empire Sports | Analytics

@EmpiresportsHQ21 followersfirst pick 25 Septusually posts 13 h before start

Data-driven sports betting analysis. Picks, trends & matchup context. No guarantees, no hype — just the information I’d want before placing a bet.

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseball
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Tipster index45.1#628 on the leaderboarddown 8 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
-:-
Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens +9.5
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
-:-
Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens +10@1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
-:-
Las Vegas Raiders
San Francisco 49ers −9.5
Hit rate
39.3%
expected 44.4%
Edge
−5.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 25.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
29
11-17-1 · 3 pending
ROI
−15.7%
on 22 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.43 u
Average odds
2.06
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W2, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-10125 Sept4 Oct13 Oct23 Oct1 Nov

By sport

Hockey5-7-1 · 13 graded
−4.3
42%
NFL & NCAAF2-8 · 10 graded
−21.7
20%
Baseball4-2 · 6 graded
+20.8
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result6-9 · 15 graded
−5.9
40%
Handicap2-3 · 5 graded
−7.7
40%
Parlays0-4 · 4 graded
−27.4
0%
Team totals3-1 · 4 graded
+23.1
75%
Totals0-0-1 · 1 graded
0.0
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-1 · 1 graded
−68.5
0%
Even10-9-1 · 20 graded
+4.3
53%
Underdog1-3 · 4 graded
−11.6
25%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-4-1 · 7 graded
−34.3%
33%
1.90…2.297-3 · 10 graded
+39.6%
70%
2.30…3.490-4 · 4 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +2.9 pp
    2-2 · 50%
  • October 2026
    −9.0 pp
    8-15-1 · 35%
    ROI −12.8%
  • November 2026
    +51.8 pp
    1-0 · 100%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:38 · 28 h before start
Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
-:-
Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens +9.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:38 · 28 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
-:-
Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens +10
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:38 · 4 days before start
Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
-:-
Las Vegas Raiders
San Francisco 49ers −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 1 Nov, 10:07 · 8 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
19:15
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions −3.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 28 Oct, 08:33 · 40 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
27:19
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers +3.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
27:19
Carolina Panthers
Under 47.5✓
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 11:11 · 14 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Carolina Hurricanes to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:13 · 12 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:3
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 13:15 · 11 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 08:07 · 16 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers −7.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 07:52 · 9 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:2
New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 07:52 · 9 h before start
odds 1.88Push
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:2
New Jersey Devils
Over 6@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 11 h before start
odds 1.97Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
4:5
New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils to win@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.97 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 12 h before start
odds 2.05Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
3:7
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 12 h before start
odds 2.38Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
4:3
Buffalo Sabres
penalties
Buffalo Sabres to win@2.38
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 12 h before start
odds 2.37Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
4:2
Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals to win@2.37
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 12 h before start
odds 2.04Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
2:3
Seattle Kraken
penalties
Seattle Kraken to win@2.04
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.04 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 13 h before start
odds 1.63Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
4:1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 13 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:7
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 13 h before start
odds 2.88Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
3:2
Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver Canucks to win@2.88
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 10:34 · 16 h before start
odds 1.94Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
3:6
Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 10 Oct, 12:51 · 11 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions −1.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Under 54.5✓
Open on Xexpected 24% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 03:50 · 41 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals over 23.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 07:07 · 41 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys −8
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 10:11 · 12 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 13:54 · 7 h before start
odds 1.76Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox over 2.5@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 09:49 · 11 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Under 48✕
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 06:28 · 18 h before start
odds 2.80Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 3posted 2 Oct, 08:03 · 2 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals −2.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Under 51.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Under 50.5✓
Open on Xexpected 14% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 10:40 · 9 h before start
odds 1.79Lost
MLB·
San Diego Padres
9:4
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 06:52 · 16 h before start
Won
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
6:9
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox over 4.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model