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Mr.Wemby

@Wembysburn3r5.1K followersfirst pick 12 Octusually posts 7 h before start

sports insider

NFL & NCAAFTennisBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index50.4needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 48.8%
Edge
+1.2 pp
over expectation
Graded
6
3-3
ROI
−21.0%
on 5 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.99
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.20.411 Oct14 Oct17 Oct20 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF1-2 · 3 graded
−13.4
33%
Tennis2-0 · 2 graded
+50.4
100%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−53.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result2-2 · 4 graded
+1.1
50%
Handicap1-1 · 2 graded
+1.5
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even3-3 · 6 graded
+1.2
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.292-2 · 4 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +1.2 pp
    3-3 · 50%
    ROI −21.0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 20 Oct, 03:28 · 3 h before start
odds 2.00Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Terence Atmane
2:0
Rinky Hijikata
Terence Atmane to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:24 · 2 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers −7.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 18:24 · 25 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:37 · 10 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 03:49 · 12 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes −3
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 02:24 · 4 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Stefanos Tsitsipas
2:1
Taylor Fritz
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win
Open on Xexpected 52% by model