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Bernie Bets

@BernieSportsBet88 followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 4 h before start

KING OF NBA🏀UNDERs #76ers #MMA

NFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index50.4#337 on the leaderboardup 189 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 49.7%
Edge
+0.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
65
32-32-1
ROI
−1.5%
on 59 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.32 u
Average odds
1.95
singles with odds
Form
streak W5 · best W4, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-203 Aug23 Aug12 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF20-14 · 34 graded
+9.7
59%
Baseball5-16-1 · 22 graded
−26.0
24%
Basketball7-2 · 9 graded
+26.1
78%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result20-24 · 44 graded
−4.5
45%
Handicap9-3 · 12 graded
+24.9
75%
Totals3-4-1 · 8 graded
−6.2
43%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−40.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-1 · 4 graded
+10.2
75%
Even27-27-1 · 55 graded
−0.1
50%
Underdog2-3 · 5 graded
+4.6
40%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.8918-14 · 32 graded
+0.7%
56%
1.90…2.299-10-1 · 20 graded
−3.8%
47%
2.30…3.492-3 · 5 graded
+5.0%
40%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −4.4 pp
    4-5 · 44%
    ROI −12.4%
  • September 2026
    +3.8 pp
    8-7-1 · 53%
    ROI −4.7%
  • October 2026
    +0.1 pp
    20-20 · 50%
    ROI +2.7%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:39 · 7 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:29 · 4 h before start
odds 1.57Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.57 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:29 · 4 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:29 · 4 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:29 · 4 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:29 · 5 h before start
odds 1.65Won
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:01 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:01 · 8 h before start
odds 2.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Open on Xexpected 39% from the closing line+1.45 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:01 · 10 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 21:26 · 3 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 18:24 · 6 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:00 · 2 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New York Jets +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:00 · 2 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:00 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:00 · 5 h before start
odds 3.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders to win@3.00
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 17 Oct, 15:41 · 18 min before start
odds 2.24Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Under 50.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers to win@2.24✕
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:41 · 4 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels −4
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:41 · 8 h before start
odds 2.02Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 18:08 · 6 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:53 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:53 · 2 h before start
odds 2.14Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Missouri State Bears to win@2.14
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.14 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:53 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 19:43 · 5 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams −3
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:13 · 4 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +3
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:15 · 45 min before start
odds 2.50Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
27:6
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:15 · 45 min before start
odds 1.57Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
17:21
North Carolina Tar Heels
Pittsburgh Panthers to win@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:15 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Under 40.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:27 · 5 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
3:9
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:27 · 7 h before start
odds 1.65Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:27 · 9 h before start
odds 1.60Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win@1.60
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u