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VIPPicks

@VIPPicks38.2K followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 17 h before start

Premium sports handicapping since 2014. MLB • NFL • NCAAF • Soccer • NBA • NCAAB • NHL. Daily selections. Publicly tracked results.

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballFootball
Tipster index52.0#360 on the leaderboarddown 65 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
-:-
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes −22.5@1.91
Hit rate
52.3%
expected 50.8%
Edge
+1.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 42.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
65
34-31 · 2 pending
ROI
−5.8%
on 63 picks with odds · max drawdown −10.93 u
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

0241 Aug25 Aug17 Sept11 Oct4 Nov

By sport

Baseball23-21 · 44 graded
+1.1
52%
NFL & NCAAF5-1 · 6 graded
+31.4
83%
Hockey2-4 · 6 graded
−15.8
33%
Basketball3-2 · 5 graded
+10.1
60%
Football1-3 · 4 graded
−24.3
25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result25-22 · 47 graded
+2.2
53%
Handicap7-5 · 12 graded
+7.7
58%
Totals2-4 · 6 graded
−16.7
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+37.0
100%
Even32-30 · 62 graded
+0.8
52%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−27.3
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.8918-11 · 29 graded
+10.7%
62%
1.90…2.2913-19 · 32 graded
−19.5%
41%
2.30…3.490-0 · 0 graded
-
-
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +18.7 pp
    16-7 · 70%
    ROI +27.9%
  • September 2026
    −9.7 pp
    8-11 · 42%
    ROI −30.3%
  • October 2026
    −7.1 pp
    9-12 · 43%
    ROI −22.2%
  • November 2026
    +0.1 pp
    1-1 · 50%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 4 Nov, 05:05 · 4 days before start
odds 1.91Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
-:-
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes −22.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 2 Nov, 20:56 · 28 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Edmonton Oilers
penalties
Edmonton Oilers to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 03:23 · 15 h before start
odds 1.79Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
36:10
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 03:41 · 18 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
104:109
Philadelphia 76ers
Charlotte Hornets to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 15:11 · 9 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 15:11 · 11 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
87:103
LA Lakers
LA Lakers −2@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 04:25 · 20 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
5:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 04:25 · 12 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
Premier League·
Chelsea
0:2
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur −4.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:05 · 2 days before start
odds 2.20Lost
Belgian Pro League·
Gent
4:0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:20 · 18 h before start
odds 1.97Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
4:0
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 02:56 · 4 days before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
27:24
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee Volunteers +10.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 03:22 · 20 h before start
odds 2.24Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
3:4
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win@2.24
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.24 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 03:29 · 17 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 03:29 · 18 h before start
odds 1.87Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 05:08 · 20 h before start
odds 2.30Pending
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
-:-
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds
Singleposted 15 Oct, 04:56 · 19 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 04:19 · 4 days before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 04:00 · 17 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 03:04 · 11 h before start
odds 1.91Won
France · LNB Pro A·
Saint-Quentin
87:98
Le Mans
Le Mans +2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 03:59 · 19 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
1:0
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Detroit Red Wings to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 03:59 · 19 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Washington Wizards
114:108
Detroit Pistons
Washington Wizards −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:41 · 19 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
5:3
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:47 · 3 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:16 · 20 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
6:5
Montreal Canadiens
Pittsburgh Penguins +2@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 05:34 · 18 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 02:21 · 17 h before start
odds 1.88Lost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
2:4
Pittsburgh Pirates
Detroit Tigers to win@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:12 · 16 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
1:5
Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 03:40 · 20 h before start
odds 2.10Won
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
9:12
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 02:40 · 14 h before start
odds 2.11Lost
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
2:1
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals to win@2.11
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 17:42 · 6 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
5:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u