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Dustin

@DustinSaracini2K followersfirst pick 13 Augusually posts 4 h before start

betting analyst @Covers 💰

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyFootball
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Tipster index56.2#183 on the leaderboarddown 24 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
52.9%
expected 44.4%
Edge
+8.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 34.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
17
9-8
ROI
+62.6%
on 12 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
2.32
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W3, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

01212 Aug1 Sept20 Sept9 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Baseball6-3 · 9 graded
+23.2
67%
NFL & NCAAF3-2 · 5 graded
+9.8
60%
Hockey0-2 · 2 graded
−32.1
0%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−48.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result7-1 · 8 graded
+43.4
88%
Handicap1-4 · 5 graded
−25.6
20%
Totals1-2 · 3 graded
−20.5
33%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−13.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+36.5
100%
Even6-7 · 13 graded
−2.2
46%
Underdog2-0 · 2 graded
+75.0
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.294-4 · 8 graded
−1.1%
50%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+1-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +40.5 pp
    5-1 · 83%
    ROI +126.7%
  • September 2026
    −14.8 pp
    1-2 · 33%
  • October 2026
    −6.8 pp
    3-5 · 38%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 4posted 28 Oct, 14:39 · 9 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:2
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:0
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
New Jersey Devils
Colorado Avalanche to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs to win✕
Open on Xexpected 13% by model
Singleposted 12 Oct, 20:21 · 4 h before start
odds 2.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:7
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays −1.5
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 20:21 · 39 min before start
odds 2.04DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 20:21 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Over 54.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:55 · 5 h before start
Lost
France · Ligue Magnus·
Nice
3:1
Angers
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:59 · 1 h before start
odds 2.04DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.04 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 00:00 · 19 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −4
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 23:46 · 34 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −1.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 14 Sept, 17:11 · 7 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 04:09 · 15 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Athletics
2:0
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays −1.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Aug, 15:44 · 1 h before start
odds 2.00Won
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
0:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Aug, 19:41 · 3 h before start
odds 1.82Won
MLB·
Miami Marlins
2:4
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 17 Aug, 20:38 · 1 h before start
odds 1.63Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:6
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 13 Aug, 02:03 · 16 h before start
odds 5.10Won
MLB·
New York Yankees
0:1
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners to win@5.10
Open on Xexpected 19% from odds+4.10 u
Singleposted 13 Aug, 02:03 · 15 h before start
odds 3.05Won
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
3:0
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers to win@3.05
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds+2.05 u
Singleposted 13 Aug, 02:03 · 16 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
Europa League Qualification·
Rangers
1:1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Rangers to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u