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LlamaPicks

@Llama_Picks148 followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 3 h before start

Free daily picks: MLB · NFL · NHL • NCAA • And More. Threads for big plays. Every pick graded in public. 🦙

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Tipster index51.9#359 on the leaderboardup 14 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
49.2%
expected 47.8%
Edge
+1.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
63
31-32
ROI
−2.2%
on 50 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.20 u
Average odds
2.30
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-10121 Aug25 Aug17 Sept11 Oct3 Nov

By sport

Baseball16-15 · 31 graded
+0.1
52%
Football6-13 · 19 graded
−3.4
32%
Basketball9-4 · 13 graded
+11.6
69%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result20-24 · 44 graded
−0.0
45%
Handicap9-4 · 13 graded
+11.6
69%
Totals1-3 · 4 graded
−21.4
25%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−33.8
0%
Both teams to score1-0 · 1 graded
+58.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite5-2 · 7 graded
+7.8
71%
Even24-18 · 42 graded
+5.6
57%
Underdog2-11 · 13 graded
−13.0
15%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8913-10 · 23 graded
−1.3%
57%
1.90…2.299-6 · 15 graded
+22.1%
60%
2.30…3.490-6 · 6 graded
−100.0%
0%
3.50+2-4 · 6 graded
+31.7%
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +0.6 pp
    6-7 · 46%
    ROI +9.5%
  • September 2026
    +0.2 pp
    9-8 · 53%
    ROI −2.7%
  • October 2026
    +2.8 pp
    15-16 · 48%
    ROI −5.2%
  • November 2026
    −4.1 pp
    1-1 · 50%

By league

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 3 Nov, 18:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.53Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester United
3:2
AS Roma
Over 2.5@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 18:30 · 2 h before start
odds 2.08Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Barcelona
3:0
Aston Villa
Over 4.5@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 14:15 · 45 min before start
odds 2.28Won
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Leeds United
Both teams to score: no@2.28
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.28 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 21:02 · 3 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
111:97
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons +4.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 21:01 · 3 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
130:103
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings +18.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 20:03 · 6 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Denver Nuggets
114:134
Golden State Warriors
Denver Nuggets −7.5
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 20:02 · 3 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
110:103
Washington Wizards
Charlotte Hornets −1.5
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 14:02 · 11 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Sacramento Kings
112:123
Memphis Grizzlies
Sacramento Kings +4.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 14:01 · 9 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
108:101
LA Clippers
LA Clippers +15.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:02 · 9 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
127:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +12.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:02 · 8 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
115:110
Miami Heat
Charlotte Hornets +3.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 10:00 · 4 h before start
odds 3.20Lost
Premier League·
Coventry City
0:1
Fulham
Coventry City to win@3.20
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 10:00 · 2 h before start
odds 4.50Lost
Premier League·
Aston Villa
2:1
Manchester City
Draw@4.50
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 10:00 · 7 h before start
odds 3.80Won
Premier League·
Chelsea
0:2
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur to win@3.80
Open on Xexpected 25% from odds+2.80 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 23:30 · 30 min before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.53 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:02 · 3 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
102:112
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors −8.5
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:02 · 5 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
110:114
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +5.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 3.10Lost
Premier League·
Ipswich Town
1:1
Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town to win@3.10
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:02 · 3 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +1.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:01 · 6 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:01 · 3 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 4.60Lost
Premier League·
Tottenham Hotspur
3:1
Coventry City
Draw@4.60
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:30 · 2 h before start
odds 2.15Won
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
AFC Bournemouth to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.15 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:30 · 2 h before start
odds 2.50Lost
Premier League·
Leeds United
1:1
Manchester United
Leeds United to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 10:00 · 4 h before start
odds 2.40Lost
Premier League·
Brentford
1:2
Liverpool
Brentford to win@2.40
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 10:00 · 2 h before start
odds 2.90Lost
Premier League·
Everton
0:2
Chelsea
Everton to win@2.90
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 10:00 · 7 h before start
odds 3.70Lost
Premier League·
Newcastle United
0:1
Aston Villa
Draw@3.70
Open on Xexpected 26% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
Premier League·
Coventry City
4:1
Newcastle United
Newcastle United to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 11:30 · 2 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
Premier League·
Hull City
2:2
Everton
Everton to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 11:30 · 2 h before start
odds 2.55Lost
Premier League·
Crystal Palace
3:1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest to win@2.55
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u