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Twenty7 Legacy Sports

@Twenty7Legacy38 followersfirst pick 22 Septusually posts 2 h before start

Military Veteran-founded sports intelligence company. Detailed analysis, picks & transparent tracking. Bet responsibly, my friends.

BaseballNFL & NCAAF
Tipster index42.4#580 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
30.0%
expected 45.2%
Edge
−15.2 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 12.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
10
3-7
ROI
−33.8%
on 10 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.00 u
Average odds
2.00
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W2, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1.5-1-0.5021 Sept29 Sept7 Oct15 Oct24 Oct

By sport

Baseball3-6 · 9 graded
−10.4
33%
NFL & NCAAF0-1 · 1 graded
−58.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-2 · 5 graded
+8.9
60%
Totals0-4 · 4 graded
−47.6
0%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−5.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even2-6 · 8 graded
−27.0
25%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+69.6
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-3 · 5 graded
−30.3%
40%
1.90…2.290-3 · 3 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −6.4 pp
    3-5 · 38%
    ROI −17.3%
  • October 2026
    −50.3 pp
    0-2 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:40 · 2 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 13:01 · 11 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 21:16 · 3 h before start
odds 1.96Lost
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
2:7
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 11@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 22 Sept, 21:06 · 3 h before start
odds 14.86Lost
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
2:7
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win@2.31✓
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:8
Miami Marlins
Over 6.5@1.87✓
MLB·
Texas Rangers
3:6
New York Mets
Texas Rangers to win@1.84✕
MLB·
Texas Rangers
3:6
New York Mets
Over 8@1.87✓
Open on Xexpected 6% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 20:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.60Won
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
2:0
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates to win@1.60
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.60 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 20:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
2:0
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 7@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 20:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.68Lost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
1:3
Washington Nationals
Detroit Tigers to win@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 20:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
MLB·
New York Yankees
1:6
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 6@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 20:56 · 2 h before start
odds 3.13Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
0:4
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds to win@3.13
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds+2.13 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 20:56 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89Won
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
11:14
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.89 u