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Tokyo Brandon

@Tokyo_Brandon6.3K followersfirst pick 12 Augusually posts 18 h before start

@WagerTalk 's #1 profit capper 🥇2021, 🥇2022 & 🥇2024 (2025 - #4). Former MLB scout. Lived in Japan since 1991. #sportsbetting #gambling

NFL & NCAAFBaseballHockey
CompareRSS
Tipster index51.1#390 on the leaderboarddown 130 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
57.1%
expected 55.4%
Edge
+1.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 36.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
14
8-6
ROI
−18.0%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.31 u
Average odds
1.87
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W4, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-101211 Aug1 Sept21 Sept12 Oct1 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF5-2 · 7 graded
+13.9
71%
Baseball3-3 · 6 graded
−2.2
50%
Hockey0-1 · 1 graded
−60.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-4 · 7 graded
−9.8
43%
Totals4-1 · 5 graded
+20.6
80%
Handicap1-1 · 2 graded
−5.3
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-3 · 6 graded
−12.7
50%
Even5-3 · 8 graded
+12.5
63%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-2 · 3 graded
-
33%
1.90…2.292-2 · 4 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −3.2 pp
    2-2 · 50%
  • September 2026
    +30.6 pp
    5-1 · 83%
  • October 2026
    −28.9 pp
    1-2 · 33%
  • November 2026
    −60.0 pp
    0-1 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 1 Nov, 15:23 · 6 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
6:3
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 23:07 · 3 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 02:32 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
24:10
Iowa State Cyclones
Over 48.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 00:41 · 4 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Over 50.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 00:23 · 4 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
35:6
New England Patriots
Under 45.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 23 Sept, 08:53 · 11 h before start
odds 2.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
2:4
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 01:27 · 16 h before start
odds 1.59DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
1:9
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.59 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 03:20 · 17 h before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
6:7
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line+1.10 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 16:30 · 4 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
36:38
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Over 50.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 3 Sept, 20:02 · 47 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Auburn Tigers
17:16
Baylor Bears
Under 59
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 22 Aug, 04:33 · 20 h before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
5:11
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Aug, 01:59 · 16 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
8:3
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Aug, 17:36 · 2 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Preseason·
Kansas City Chiefs
12:20
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.05 u
Singleposted 12 Aug, 07:38 · 11 h before start
Won
MLB·
Athletics
4:8
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays −1
Open on Xexpected 52% by model