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Jason Picks👊🏾🤑

@SJP95426.9K followersfirst pick 9 Octusually posts 3 h before start

Think one step ahead like a carpenter making stairs MLB:583-400 NFL:65-39 CFB: 36-22 NBA:233-168 CBB:249-186 @HOFapp @trendscenterapp #PhinsUp #LetsGoBucs #H2P

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
Tipster index44.9needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
40.0%
expected 57.9%
Edge
−17.9 pp
over expectation
Graded
5
2-3
ROI
-
on 1 picks with odds
Average odds
1.95
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W1, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1.5-1-0.509 Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF1-2 · 3 graded
−24.5
33%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
−8.1
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals0-2 · 2 graded
−66.5
0%
Handicap1-1 · 2 graded
−4.0
50%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+51.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-2 · 3 graded
−33.7
33%
Even1-0 · 1 graded
+51.2
100%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−39.8
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −17.9 pp
    2-3 · 40%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:29 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:03 · 5 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons −2.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:52 · 3 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
2:0
Chicago White Sox
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:09 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Oklahoma Sooners +7.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 20:44 · 6 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
24:10
Iowa State Cyclones
Over 46.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model