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LockSmith Algorithm

@LockxSmith784 followersfirst pick 20 Septusually posts 13 h before start

We do the math so you don’t have to. Only posting straight bets.

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index51.9#275 on the leaderboardup 58 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
55.8%
expected 54.3%
Edge
+1.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
57
29-23-5
ROI
+1.6%
on 28 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.30 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W7, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-101219 Sept28 Sept6 Oct14 Oct22 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF29-23-5 · 57 graded
+1.5
56%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap26-20-5 · 51 graded
+1.2
57%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+16.3
67%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
−0.5
50%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−24.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-8-2 · 21 graded
−7.2
58%
Even18-14-3 · 35 graded
+7.4
56%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.899-8-2 · 19 graded
−1.5%
53%
1.90…2.295-4 · 9 graded
+8.0%
56%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +5.8 pp
    15-10-1 · 60%
    ROI +23.4%
  • October 2026
    −2.5 pp
    14-13-4 · 52%
    ROI −17.3%

By league

  • NFL16-15-352%−1.1
  • NCAAF13-8-262%+5.3

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:43 · 6 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:42 · 2 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
24:30
New Mexico State Aggies
Sam Houston State Bearkats +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:21 · 6 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
23:26
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +10.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 14:03 · 10 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Florida Gators +11
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers +20.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
41:23
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Push
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon State Beavers
48:30
Washington State Cougars
Washington State Cougars +18
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
6:17
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Horned Frogs +6
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Syracuse Orange
26:34
Louisville Cardinals
Syracuse Orange +14.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
0:24
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +15.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTEP Miners
11:24
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose State Spartans −7.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Diego State Aztecs
26:23
Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State Bulldogs −7.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
31:0
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs +14.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:40 · 50 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State Owls −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 04:21 · 20 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
27:24
FIU Golden Panthers
FIU Golden Panthers +3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 12:55 · 11 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +3.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:06 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns +2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
New York Giants +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
13:23
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings −2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −7
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears −1.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 9 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars −7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:05 · 13 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 13:56 · 11 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 04:04 · 19 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
22:3
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State Aggies +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 04:16 · 13 h before start
Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14:17
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model