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TakesAndChaos

@TakesAndChaos100 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 7 h before start

I tweet what everyone else is thinking. Die hard Bay Area sports fan Sports 🏈 | News 🌎 | Culture 🍿 | Chaos No filter. No apologies. Just takes.

BaseballNFL & NCAAFBasketballHockey
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Tipster index48.6#463 on the leaderboarddown 25 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 2

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
-:-
Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 239.5@1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
-:-
Carolina Panthers
Under 47.5@1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 51.7%
Edge
−1.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 32.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
20
10-10 · 2 pending
ROI
−1.1%
on 17 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.03 u
Average odds
1.83
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W3, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.500.5131 Jul19 Aug7 Sept26 Sept15 Oct

By sport

Baseball8-7 · 15 graded
+1.8
53%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−3.3
50%
Hockey1-1 · 2 graded
−1.9
50%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−50.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result7-6 · 13 graded
−1.0
54%
Totals1-3 · 4 graded
−21.6
25%
Handicap2-1 · 3 graded
+21.8
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−14.4
50%
Even9-8 · 17 graded
+1.6
53%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−32.1
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.895-5 · 10 graded
−17.7%
50%
1.90…2.293-2 · 5 graded
+24.8%
60%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +6.5 pp
    9-6 · 60%
    ROI +12.1%
  • September 2026
    +7.7 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • October 2026
    −48.9 pp
    0-3 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 29 Oct, 04:04 · 20 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
-:-
Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 239.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line
Singleposted 29 Oct, 04:04 · 20 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
-:-
Carolina Panthers
Under 47.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 15 Oct, 14:05 · 9 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
4:5
Buffalo Sabres
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 00:06 · 9 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 37.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 30 Sept, 13:38 · 10 h before start
odds 2.13DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:2
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 23:50 · 10 min before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:0
Boston Red Sox
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 32% by model
Singleposted 29 Sept, 20:46 · 13 min before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
0:1
Florida Panthers
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 6 Aug, 13:52 · 6 h before start
odds 2.08Won
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
0:11
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds+1.08 u
Singleposted 6 Aug, 13:52 · 9 h before start
odds 2.16Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
11:3
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves −1.5@2.16
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.16 u
Singleposted 5 Aug, 19:26 · 4 h before start
odds 2.35Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
4:1
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves −1.5@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.35 u
Singleposted 5 Aug, 19:26 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
4:1
Miami Marlins
Over 8.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Aug, 15:42 · 7 h before start
odds 1.59Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
6:3
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.59 u
Singleposted 3 Aug, 15:42 · 7 h before start
odds 1.41Lost
MLB·
New York Yankees
7:13
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Yankees to win@1.41
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Aug, 15:42 · 8 h before start
odds 1.60Lost
MLB·
Houston Astros
1:3
Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros to win@1.60
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Aug, 15:24 · 2 h before start
odds 1.69Won
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
0:8
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 2 Aug, 15:24 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
1:5
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Aug, 15:24 · 3 h before start
odds 1.69Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
7:3
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 1 Aug, 13:22 · 10 h before start
odds 1.71Won
CFL · CFL: Regular Season·
Edmonton Elks
26:28
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan Roughriders to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 1 Aug, 13:22 · 4 h before start
odds 1.90Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Chicago Sky
84:83
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces −6.5@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Aug, 13:22 · 10 h before start
odds 2.00Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
5:4
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Aug, 13:22 · 10 h before start
odds 1.82Lost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
5:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Aug, 01:50 · 17 h before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:1
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.55 u