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Wegs "Wildcard" Benedict

@WegsBets77 followersfirst pick 29 Augusually posts 5 h before start

Sports Betting Strategist | Creator of The Edge by Wegs Benedict | Leader of the #WildcardCrew. Turning calculated chaos into cold hard cash.

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballFootball
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Tipster index50.4#363 on the leaderboarddown 42 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
52.0%
expected 51.7%
Edge
+0.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
103
52-48-3
ROI
−4.7%
on 78 picks with odds · max drawdown −10.37 u
Average odds
1.96
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W6, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-202428 Aug12 Sept26 Sept11 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Baseball42-35-3 · 80 graded
+2.4
55%
NFL & NCAAF6-10 · 16 graded
−12.0
38%
Hockey3-2 · 5 graded
+4.8
60%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−37.6
0%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+50.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals29-24-3 · 56 graded
+1.4
55%
Match result13-15 · 28 graded
−2.4
46%
Handicap7-9 · 16 graded
−9.3
44%
Parlays3-0 · 3 graded
+55.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite5-6 · 11 graded
−20.3
45%
Even42-37-3 · 82 graded
+1.7
53%
Underdog2-5 · 7 graded
−6.4
29%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.8917-22-1 · 40 graded
−22.0%
44%
1.90…2.2915-11-2 · 28 graded
+12.0%
58%
2.30…3.492-5 · 7 graded
−28.6%
29%
3.50+1-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −6.2 pp
    2-3 · 40%
  • September 2026
    +2.3 pp
    41-33-3 · 55%
    ROI −1.2%
  • October 2026
    −5.4 pp
    9-12 · 43%
    ROI −14.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:50 · 1 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
16:10
Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings −6.5@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:44 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
16:30
Denver Broncos
Under 43.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 24 Oct, 14:03 · 10 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
5:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.83✓
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
5:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5✓
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 1.53Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 1.69Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 4 h before start
odds 1.61Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
1:4
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.61 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 4 h before start
odds 1.59Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
1:4
Montreal Canadiens
Chicago Blackhawks +1.5@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 4 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
1:4
Montreal Canadiens
Under 6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
6:3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 5 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
6:3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Under 6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 23:13 · 1 h before start
odds 2.36Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots to win@2.36
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 20:33 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 18:52 · 5 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers −7.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 05:28 · 12 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 03:33 · 17 h before start
odds 2.08DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 17:40 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
53:25
Arizona State Sun Devils
Texas Tech Red Raiders −15.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:18 · 11 min before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars −7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 18:10 · 1 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −7.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 13:29 · 30 min before start
odds 2.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Championship·
Derby County
1:1
Wrexham
Wrexham to win
Open on Xexpected 38% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 10:10 · 14 h before start
odds 4.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
Open on Xexpected 20% from the closing line+3.80 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 13:21 · 11 h before start
odds 1.79DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
10:2
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 13:48 · 12 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:4
San Diego Padres
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 13:47 · 9 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
New York Yankees
6:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 13:46 · 9 h before start
odds 1.41DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
6:7
Cincinnati Reds
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 14:38 · 9 h before start
odds 1.82DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:3
Miami Marlins
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 14:38 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
1:0
Cleveland Guardians
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 14:37 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
New York Yankees
9:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.87 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 14:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.88DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
2:4
Washington Nationals
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 14:11 · 10 h before start
Won
MLB·
Texas Rangers
3:6
New York Mets
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 56% by model