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@bethero_hq466 followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 5 h before start

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BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketball
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Tipster index49.0#450 on the leaderboarddown 69 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
48.9%
expected 49.5%
Edge
−0.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
282
137-143-2
ROI
−5.0%
on 281 picks with odds · max drawdown −29.05 u
Average odds
1.95
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W8, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-505103 Aug24 Aug15 Sept6 Oct28 Oct

By sport

Baseball60-55-2 · 117 graded
+3.9
52%
NFL & NCAAF56-55 · 111 graded
+0.4
50%
Hockey15-25 · 40 graded
−13.4
38%
Basketball6-8 · 14 graded
−7.9
43%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result49-56 · 105 graded
−1.9
47%
Handicap49-50 · 99 graded
−0.9
49%
Totals39-34-2 · 75 graded
+3.8
53%
Parlays0-3 · 3 graded
−47.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-4 · 6 graded
−29.1
33%
Even127-130-2 · 259 graded
−0.5
49%
Underdog8-6 · 14 graded
+21.3
57%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.8938-31-1 · 70 graded
−4.8%
55%
1.90…2.2991-93-1 · 185 graded
−2.9%
49%
2.30…3.498-13 · 21 graded
−1.1%
38%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +1.1 pp
    33-34-1 · 49%
    ROI −0.7%
  • September 2026
    +8.8 pp
    53-39-1 · 58%
    ROI +11.1%
  • October 2026
    −8.6 pp
    51-70 · 42%
    ROI −19.9%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:20 · 6 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
0:2
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 17:19 · 7 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
111:97
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons +4@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 16:19 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
130:103
Sacramento Kings
Over 231.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 14:04 · 10 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:47 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Denver Nuggets
114:134
Golden State Warriors
Denver Nuggets −7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 18:48 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
125:114
Phoenix Suns
Oklahoma City Thunder −9.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 17:47 · 7 h before start
odds 1.65Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
5:2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 16:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Over 44@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 15:44 · 8 h before start
odds 2.00Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:58 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
6:3
New York Islanders
Under 5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:48 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
109:136
Indiana Pacers
Under 232.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 14:30 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Over 55.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 13:29 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
25:28
Miami Dolphins
Over 39.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 18:09 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
127:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Under 234.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 18:09 · 5 h before start
odds 2.30Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
0:4
Carolina Hurricanes
St. Louis Blues to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:48 · 7 h before start
odds 1.70Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
16:20
Virginia Tech Hokies
Clemson Tigers to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 14:48 · 11 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah Utes
21:13
Houston Cougars
Utah Utes −6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 13:48 · 6 h before start
odds 1.74Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
27:24
Tennessee Volunteers
South Carolina Gamecocks to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:28 · 4 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
6:3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:27 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
93:115
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves −1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:26 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
Under 222.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:26 · 7 h before start
odds 1.53Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 20:15 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
New York Rangers
New York Rangers to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:00 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Appalachian State Mountaineers
34:31
James Madison Dukes
Over 56.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 18:00 · 5 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:33 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Over 5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 18:32 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn Nets +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 17:31 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:31 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards −4.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:20 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks −4.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u