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Tail The Whale

@TailTheWhaleee1.2K followersfirst pick 29 Augusually posts 4 h before start

Sports Betting Analysis & Sharp Picks🎯|NFL| NBA| MLB| NCAA & More Free Discord Link Below ⬇️⬇️

NFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index40.2#565 on the leaderboarddown 382 this weekdeveloping sample

Deleted picks

After posting, the author deleted 1 pick from X: 1 lost, 0 won.

Deleted picks stay in the stats: the index and hit rate include them. How we check

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
-:-
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils to win@2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
43.6%
expected 52.3%
Edge
−8.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 31.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
39
17-22 · 1 pending
ROI
−23.9%
on 16 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.68 u
Average odds
2.37
singles with odds
Form
streak L9 · best W3, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-2029 Aug10 Sept23 Sept6 Oct19 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF17-22 · 39 graded
−8.7
44%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap13-9 · 22 graded
+0.6
59%
Match result4-12 · 16 graded
−20.2
25%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−29.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-7 · 18 graded
−3.7
61%
Even3-9 · 12 graded
−23.5
25%
Underdog3-5 · 8 graded
+5.0
38%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.890-4 · 4 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
2.30…3.493-4 · 7 graded
+18.6%
43%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +30.4 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • September 2026
    +6.3 pp
    8-5 · 62%
  • October 2026
    −18.0 pp
    8-17 · 32%
    ROI −39.0%

By league

  • NCAAF16-2044%−8.0
  • NFL1-150%−11.2

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:17 · 2 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
-:-
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line
Singleposted 19 Oct, 00:05 · 15 min before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 17 Oct, 18:19 · 5 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Houston Cougars
35:32
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Houston Cougars to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers to win✕
Open on Xexpected 29% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:15 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:15 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:15 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 16:15 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Missouri Tigers +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:59 · 1 min before start
DeletedLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:50 · 3 h before start
odds 1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:47 · 3 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Purdue Boilermakers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:17 · 3 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:52 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Oklahoma Sooners +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:52 · 8 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nebraska Cornhuskers
17:20
Indiana Hoosiers
Nebraska Cornhuskers +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:52 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
15:17
UCLA Bruins
Oregon Ducks −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:52 · 4 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas State Wildcats
16:35
Houston Cougars
Kansas State Wildcats to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:52 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:52 · 8 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:25 · 6 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Washington Huskies to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:25 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Louisville Cardinals −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:25 · 6 h before start
odds 2.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Jose State Spartans
13:16
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 37% from the closing line+1.60 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 13:27 · 3 h before start
odds 2.80Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
23:56
Alabama Crimson Tide
Mississippi State Bulldogs to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 13:27 · 6 h before start
odds 3.10Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
24:14
Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers to win@3.10
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 13:27 · 6 h before start
odds 2.80Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Missouri Tigers to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds+1.80 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 13:27 · 10 h before start
odds 2.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
TCU Horned Frogs
10:17
BYU Cougars
TCU Horned Frogs to win
Open on Xexpected 34% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 17:56 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 2 Oct, 17:56 · 6 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 20:57 · 3 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
29:23
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern Wildcats +21.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 12 Sept, 15:55 · 5 min before start
odds 2.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
17:10
Oklahoma Sooners
Michigan Wolverines to win
Open on Xexpected 33% from the closing line+1.90 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 15:55 · 4 h before start
odds 4.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
17:45
Alabama Crimson Tide
Kentucky Wildcats to win
Open on Xexpected 24% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 18:47 · 6 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model