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@Bizzle_Bets14 followersfirst pick 1 Octusually posts 2 h before start

NFL/NBA/UFC Gambling Expert backed by Former Vegas Bookies & Oddsmakers

NFL & NCAAFBasketballHockeyBaseball
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Tipster index40.7#561 on the leaderboarddown 41 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
42.9%
expected 57.5%
Edge
−14.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 24.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
15
6-8-1
ROI
−30.3%
on 11 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.00 u
Average odds
1.66
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W3, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-101 Oct6 Oct11 Oct17 Oct22 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-7-1 · 12 graded
−17.9
36%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−54.7
0%
Baseball1-0 · 1 graded
+43.6
100%
Hockey1-0 · 1 graded
+3.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap4-3 · 7 graded
−3.3
57%
Match result2-3-1 · 6 graded
−18.2
40%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−39.9
0%
Totals0-1 · 1 graded
−50.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1-1 · 4 graded
−7.4
67%
Even4-6 · 10 graded
−14.2
40%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-6-1 · 11 graded
−30.3%
40%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −14.6 pp
    6-8-1 · 43%
    ROI −30.3%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:40 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 04:00 · 13 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:2
New Jersey Devils
Washington Capitals +3.5
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:23 · 1 h before start
odds 1.65Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −3.5@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:23 · 2 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Washington Huskies +3.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:23 · 2 h before start
odds 1.63Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.5@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State Owls to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sam Houston State Bearkats +3.5@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 17:27 · 7 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:08 · 2 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Louisville Cardinals to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:08 · 44 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
Washington Commanders to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:08 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 20:15 · 3 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
22:3
New Mexico State Aggies
FIU Golden Panthers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 22:41 · 3 h before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.69 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:12 · 47 min before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
36:24
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 1 Oct, 23:53 · 21 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns +4.5✓
Open on Xexpected 40% by model