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Joe’s Picks

@Joes_Picks83.5K followersfirst pick 14 Augusually posts 19 min before start

Proven Winner Long Term | FREE sports handicapper 🙏🏼 | Can’t win if you don’t bet | I post FREE picks & give away FREE money | Content Creator

NFL & NCAAFBasketballBaseball
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Tipster index39.9#568 on the leaderboarddown 31 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 58.5%
Edge
−8.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 38.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
45
22-22-1
ROI
−34.7%
on 18 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.81 u
Average odds
1.74
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W4, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2013 Aug30 Aug17 Sept5 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF21-21-1 · 43 graded
−8.7
50%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+50.1
100%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−55.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals16-13-1 · 30 graded
−4.6
55%
Match result6-9 · 15 graded
−16.0
40%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite12-6 · 18 graded
−0.2
67%
Even10-16-1 · 27 graded
−14.2
38%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.894-10 · 14 graded
−53.4%
29%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −11.5 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • September 2026
    −9.0 pp
    13-13-1 · 50%
    ROI −17.9%
  • October 2026
    −7.3 pp
    8-8 · 50%
    ROI −42.5%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:09 · 5 min before start
odds 1.65Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 01:22 · 7 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:56 · 23 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 00:13 · 2 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Over 55
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 00:13 · 2 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Over 48.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:55 · 5 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Under 47
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:55 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Over 54.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:40 · 8 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 22:53 · 2 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 41.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 23:56 · 19 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 63.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 5 Oct, 00:06 · 14 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Over 51.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:55 · 5 min before start
odds 1.73Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:55 · 5 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14:17
Green Bay Packers
Over 38.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:55 · 5 min before start
odds 1.79Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:59 · 5 h before start
odds 1.63Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kent State Golden Flashes
10:13
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio Bobcats to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 00:10 · 5 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 44
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:04 · 56 min before start
odds 1.85Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
19:17
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:16 · 4 h before start
odds 1.64Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:28
Ole Miss Rebels
Florida Gators to win@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.64 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:16 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 38.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 21 Sept, 23:52 · 22 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
Over 40
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.73Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
6:20
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:46 · 13 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
3:9
Minnesota Vikings
Under 47
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
3:34
Carolina Panthers
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 19:24 · 6 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington State Cougars
48:7
Duquesne Dukes
Under 52.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 23:55 · 20 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Over 47.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:40 · 19 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
34:10
Cleveland Browns
Under 41
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:40 · 19 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
31:36
Buffalo Bills
Under 45
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:40 · 4 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
39:22
Green Bay Packers
Under 46
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:40 · 4 h before start
odds 1.42DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line+0.42 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 15:09 · 6 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:3
Campbell Fighting Camels
Over 66
Open on Xexpected 67% by model