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Touchstone Sports

@TStoneSports41856 followersfirst pick 5 Octusually posts 51 min before start

Free Sports Handicapping Consultant. | Home of big game write-up plays. | Mavs To Win West (+1,686) ticket holder. | Turn post notifications on!

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index44.0needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
37.5%
expected 51.6%
Edge
−14.1 pp
over expectation
Graded
9
3-5-1
ROI
−28.8%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.17 u
Average odds
1.85
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-105 Oct9 Oct14 Oct19 Oct24 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-5-1 · 9 graded
−14.1
38%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-1-1 · 4 graded
+15.4
67%
Match result1-2 · 3 graded
−19.8
33%
Totals0-2 · 2 graded
−49.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even3-5-1 · 9 graded
−14.1
38%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.893-2-1 · 6 graded
+6.8%
60%
1.90…2.290-3 · 3 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −14.1 pp
    3-5-1 · 38%
    ROI −28.8%

By league

  • NCAAF3-4-143%−8.9
  • NFL0-10%−50.9

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 24 Oct, 18:48 · 41 min before start
odds 1.74Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
27:24
Tennessee Volunteers
South Carolina Gamecocks to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:09 · 51 min before start
odds 1.83Push
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
6:13
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Hoosiers −7@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:27 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes −2.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 21:41 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 18:51 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas Razorbacks
17:24
Tennessee Volunteers
Over 51@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 16:17 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
15:17
UCLA Bruins
Over 58@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 16:00 · 45 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
19:38
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina Gamecocks +11@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 22:23 · 37 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles +4@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:46 · 29 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u