Surface Bets

@SurfaceBets52 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 8 h before start

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Tipster index50.5#219 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Open picks 6

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WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 06:25

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

live

Magdalena Frech

Magdalena Frech to win@1.70

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 07:30

Maria Sakkari

live

Donna Vekic

Maria Sakkari to win@1.61

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 11:30

Xiyu Wang

-:-

Xinyu Wang

Xinyu Wang to win@1.95

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Hanyu Guo

-:-

Sorana Cirstea

Sorana Cirstea to win

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Lilli Tagger

-:-

Nikola Bartunkova

Lilli Tagger to win@3.20

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Kimberly Birrell

-:-

Katie Volynets

Kimberly Birrell to win@2.46

Hit rate

44.4%

expected 44.2%

Edge

+0.3 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.6%, the edge is within noise

Graded

270

120-150 · 10 pending

ROI

−0.7%

on 264 picks with odds · max drawdown −20.75 u

Average odds

2.33

singles with odds

Form

streak L2 · best W8, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis120-149 · 269 graded

+0.4

45%

Football0-1 · 1 graded

−45.6

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result120-150 · 270 graded

+0.3

44%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-3 · 5 graded

−27.8

40%

Even91-90 · 181 graded

+1.0

50%

Underdog27-57 · 84 graded

+0.4

32%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8939-43 · 82 graded

−16.8%

48%

1.90…2.2944-37 · 81 graded

+11.8%

54%

2.30…3.4928-51 · 79 graded

−6.2%

35%

3.50+7-15 · 22 graded

+33.4%

32%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
−0.9 pp
81-106 · 43%
ROI −6.8%
September 2026
+1.6 pp
20-26 · 43%
ROI +9.0%
October 2026
+4.8 pp
19-18 · 51%
ROI +19.6%

By league

WTA 100038-3354%+6.2
US Open22-4234%−6.9
ATP 100023-3341%−1.7
ATP 25010-1442%−2.4
ATP Challenger7-1041%−3.4
WTA 2509-564%+18.5
ATP 5003-443%−6.3
WTA 5003-260%+16.4
Davis Cup2-250%+10.0
WTA1-233%−8.0

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Picks

Singleposted 12 Oct, 05:39 · 16 min before start

odds 2.10Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 05:55

Anna Bondar

0:2

Mia Pohankova

Anna Bondar to win@2.10

Singleposted 12 Oct, 02:27 · 24 h before start

Void

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Belinda Bencic

void

Shuai Zhang

Belinda Bencic to win

Singleposted 12 Oct, 02:27 · 24 h before start

Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Hanyu Guo

-:-

Sorana Cirstea

Sorana Cirstea to win

Singleposted 12 Oct, 02:13 · 4 h before start

odds 1.80Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 06:15

Jasmine Paolini

2:0

Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win@1.80

Singleposted 12 Oct, 02:13 · 5 h before start

odds 1.61Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 07:30

Maria Sakkari

live

Donna Vekic

Maria Sakkari to win@1.61

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 25 h before start

odds 3.20Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Lilli Tagger

-:-

Nikola Bartunkova

Lilli Tagger to win@3.20

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 25 h before start

odds 2.46Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Kimberly Birrell

-:-

Katie Volynets

Kimberly Birrell to win@2.46

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 25 h before start

odds 2.14Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Dayana Yastremska

-:-

Cristina Bucsa

Cristina Bucsa to win@2.14

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 25 h before start

odds 2.14Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Daria Kasatkina

-:-

Jelena Ostapenko

Daria Kasatkina to win@2.14

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 25 h before start

odds 3.15Void

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Belinda Bencic

void

Shuai Zhang

Shuai Zhang to win@3.15

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 25 h before start

odds 3.25Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·13 Oct, 02:00

Ann Li

-:-

Qinwen Zheng

Ann Li to win@3.25

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 10 h before start

odds 1.95Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 11:30

Xiyu Wang

-:-

Xinyu Wang

Xinyu Wang to win@1.95

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 5 h before start

odds 1.70Pending

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 06:25

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

live

Magdalena Frech

Magdalena Frech to win@1.70

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 4 h before start

odds 2.80Void

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 05:00

Clara Tauson

void

Marie Bouzkova

Clara Tauson to win@2.80

Singleposted 12 Oct, 01:16 · 2 h before start

odds 2.05Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·12 Oct, 03:10

Ekaterina Alexandrova

1:2

Leylah Fernandez

Leylah Fernandez to win@2.05

Singleposted 11 Oct, 03:46 · 2 h before start

odds 2.14Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·11 Oct, 05:40

Lanlana Tararudee

1:2

Caty McNally

Lanlana Tararudee to win@2.14

Singleposted 11 Oct, 03:46 · 2 h before start

odds 1.71Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·11 Oct, 05:50

Anna Bondar

0:2

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Anna Bondar to win@1.71

Singleposted 11 Oct, 03:46 · 59 min before start

odds 1.68Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·11 Oct, 04:45

Maria Osorio

1:2

Katie Volynets

Katie Volynets to win@1.68

Singleposted 10 Oct, 18:07 · 10 h before start

odds 3.25Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 04:10

Ben Shelton

0:2

Arthur Gea

Arthur Gea to win@3.25

Singleposted 10 Oct, 18:07 · 19 h before start

odds 2.12Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 12:50

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2:1

Frances Tiafoe

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@2.12

Singleposted 10 Oct, 04:35 · 19 min before start

odds 2.20Void

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·10 Oct, 04:55

Gabriela Ruse

void

Yulia Putintseva

Yulia Putintseva to win@2.20

Singleposted 10 Oct, 04:35 · 2 h before start

odds 1.63Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·10 Oct, 06:15

Sofia Kenin

0:2

Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova to win@1.63

Singleposted 10 Oct, 04:35 · 3 h before start

odds 1.91Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·10 Oct, 08:05

Lanlana Tararudee

2:0

Claire Liu

Lanlana Tararudee to win@1.91

Singleposted 10 Oct, 04:35 · 2 h before start

odds 1.85Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·10 Oct, 06:40

Sinja Kraus

2:0

Magda Linette

Magda Linette to win@1.85

Singleposted 10 Oct, 04:35 · 4 h before start

odds 2.46Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·10 Oct, 08:45

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

2:1

Maya Joint

Mananchaya Sawangkaew to win@2.46

Singleposted 10 Oct, 03:37 · 4 h before start

odds 1.91Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·10 Oct, 07:30

Bu Yunchaokete

0:2

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud to win@1.91

Singleposted 8 Oct, 18:58 · 11 h before start

odds 1.77Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 06:15

Quentin Halys

2:1

Alexander Blockx

Alexander Blockx to win@1.77

Singleposted 8 Oct, 18:37 · 17 h before start

odds 4.75Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·9 Oct, 11:10

Elise Mertens

2:0

Iga Swiatek

Elise Mertens to win@4.75

Singleposted 8 Oct, 18:37 · 12 h before start

odds 1.72Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·9 Oct, 07:00

Qinwen Zheng

2:0

Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina to win@1.72

Singleposted 8 Oct, 18:32 · 10 h before start

odds 3.10Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 04:10

Adrian Mannarino

2:1

Flavio Cobolli

Adrian Mannarino to win@3.10