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TheBettingFloor

@TheBettingFloor1.1K followersfirst pick 5 Augusually posts 8 h before start

NFL | NBA | WNBA | ATP | WTA | MLB +96 Units in 2026 Daily Picks / Daily Recaps #NEPats 👇Join VIP Below

TennisNFL & NCAAFFootball
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Tipster index44.1#508 on the leaderboarddown 46 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
48.1%
expected 52.7%
Edge
−4.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 37.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
54
25-27-2
ROI
−16.1%
on 52 picks with odds · max drawdown −13.83 u
Average odds
1.81
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-2024 Aug23 Aug11 Sept30 Sept19 Oct

By sport

Tennis20-18 · 38 graded
−0.2
53%
NFL & NCAAF2-6-2 · 10 graded
−26.3
25%
Football3-3 · 6 graded
−3.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result17-12 · 29 graded
+4.9
59%
Handicap3-7-2 · 12 graded
−21.6
30%
Parlays3-4 · 7 graded
−4.4
43%
Totals2-3 · 5 graded
−16.4
40%
Both teams to score0-1 · 1 graded
−53.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+22.1
100%
Even21-22-2 · 45 graded
−4.5
49%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−39.7
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8917-19-1 · 37 graded
−17.6%
47%
1.90…2.293-3-1 · 7 graded
+5.7%
50%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +16.5 pp
    11-5 · 69%
    ROI +21.3%
  • September 2026
    −12.9 pp
    9-13 · 41%
    ROI −34.1%
  • October 2026
    −15.7 pp
    5-9-2 · 36%
    ROI −27.5%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 2posted 19 Oct, 05:41 · 11 h before start
odds 1.89Won
1st Lig·
Bursaspor
2:0
Pendikspor
Bursaspor over 1.5✓
LaLiga 2·
Celta Vigo B
1:1
Tenerife
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 01:53 · 39 h before start
odds 1.87Push
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots −7@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 01:15 · 12 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
Serie A·
Venezia
1:0
Napoli
Napoli to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:48 · 20 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 01:32 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Void
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Arthur Gea
void
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds
Singleposted 11 Oct, 05:07 · 8 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars −7@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 02:26 · 8 h before start
odds 2.10Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Bublik
2:1
Brandon Nakashima
Alexander Bublik to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 02:26 · 10 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
2:1
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 02:26 · 2 h before start
odds 1.67Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·
Maria Osorio
1:2
Katie Volynets
Katie Volynets to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.67 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 05:19 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·
Chak Wong
2:1
Lloyd Harris
Lloyd Harris to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 05:19 · 2 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Karolina Muchova
2:1
Naomi Osaka
Naomi Osaka to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 18:30 · 17 h before start
odds 1.69Void
ATP 500 · China Open·
Novak Djokovic
void
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds
Singleposted 5 Oct, 18:30 · 11 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·
Michael Zheng
0:2
Nicolas Mejia
Michael Zheng to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:26 · 33 min before start
odds 1.91Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14:17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers −3@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 04:19 · 37 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills −6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 04:19 · 37 h before start
odds 1.74Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
20:24
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −3@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 16:45 · 7 h before start
odds 2.20Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern Wildcats to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.20 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 20:45 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 00:15 · 9 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Matteo Arnaldi
2:1
Rei Sakamoto
Rei Sakamoto to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 03:15 · 17 h before start
odds 1.71Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Aryna Sabalenka
1:2
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 03:15 · 13 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
James Madison Dukes
87:3
Wagner Seahawks
Wagner Seahawks −3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 22:31 · 22 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Aryna Sabalenka
1:2
Elena Rybakina
Aryna Sabalenka to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 16:03 · 7 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Aryna Sabalenka
2:0
Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula +3.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 16:03 · 9 h before start
odds 1.83Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Coco Gauff
1:2
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 10 Sept, 16:03 · 41 min before start
odds 1.73Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Fenerbahçe
1:1
AS Roma
AS Roma to win@1.73✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Fenerbahçe
1:1
AS Roma
Over 2.5@1.73✕
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 12:56 · 6 h before start
odds 1.69Won
Champions League · League Stage·
FC Porto
0:2
Manchester City
Manchester City to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 12:56 · 5 h before start
odds 1.65Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Frances Tiafoe
3:2
Alex Michelsen
Frances Tiafoe to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 13:58 · 6 h before start
odds 1.71Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Naomi Osaka
0:2
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 13:58 · 8 h before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Karen Khachanov
3:2
Learner Tien
Over 3.5 sets
Open on Xexpected 78% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 15:42 · 4 h before start
odds 2.40Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Daniil Medvedev
0:3
Frances Tiafoe
Over 3.5 sets@2.40
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u