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Sharp Shot Picks

@SharpShotPicks688 followersfirst pick 30 Septusually posts 8 h before start

Not a capper. Analytics tools for Sharp bettors. Odds Shopping, DFS Contest Sims and Optimizers. https://t.co/P65VIplJLT

Hockey
CompareRSS
Tipster index41.6#679 on the leaderboarddown 46 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
24.3%
expected 32.1%
Edge
−7.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 14.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
36
9-27
ROI
−30.4%
on 36 picks with odds · max drawdown −15.03 u
Average odds
3.01
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W2, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-3-2-1029 Sept5 Oct12 Oct18 Oct24 Oct

By sport

Hockey9-27 · 36 graded
−7.8
24%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap9-27 · 36 graded
−7.8
24%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even0-2 · 2 graded
−40.4
0%
Underdog9-25 · 34 graded
−5.8
26%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

2.30…3.499-27 · 36 graded
−30.4%
24%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −0.1 pp
    1-2 · 33%
  • October 2026
    −8.5 pp
    8-25 · 23%
    ROI −33.8%

By league

  • NHL9-2724%−7.8

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:00 · 9 h before start
odds 2.89Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
6:3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche −2.89@2.89
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds+1.89 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 3.49Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
New York Rangers
New York Rangers −3.49@3.49
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:00 · 10 h before start
odds 3.45Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Carolina Hurricanes −3.45@3.45
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:30 · 8 h before start
odds 3.00Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers −3@3.00
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:30 · 8 h before start
odds 2.60Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres −2.6@2.60
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:30 · 8 h before start
odds 2.50Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Ottawa Senators −2.5@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 2.93Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche −2.93@2.93
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:00 · 10 h before start
odds 2.99Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
3:2
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes −2.99@2.99
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:00 · 9 h before start
odds 3.45Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:4
Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins −3.45@3.45
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:00 · 9 h before start
odds 3.05Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:4
Boston Bruins
Anaheim Ducks −3.05@3.05
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:00 · 8 h before start
odds 2.52Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche −2.52@2.52
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.52 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 15:30 · 9 h before start
odds 3.16Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Dallas Stars −3.16@3.16
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 15:30 · 8 h before start
odds 2.86Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals −2.86@2.86
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 15:30 · 9 h before start
odds 2.34Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche −2.34@2.34
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:00 · 10 h before start
odds 2.84Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
1:4
Carolina Hurricanes
Philadelphia Flyers −2.84@2.84
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:00 · 10 h before start
odds 2.66Half won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
1:4
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes −2.66@2.66
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:00 · 8 h before start
odds 2.48Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
3:5
Seattle Kraken
Washington Capitals −2.48@2.48
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 3.22Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
3:1
New York Rangers
New York Rangers −3.22@3.22
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 2.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
3:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
penalties
Columbus Blue Jackets −2.91@2.91
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 3.45Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
0:4
Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars −3.45@3.45
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds+2.45 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:30 · 11 h before start
odds 3.37Half lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:5
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers −3.37@3.37
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−0.50 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:30 · 11 h before start
odds 3.13Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:5
Edmonton Oilers
Anaheim Ducks −3.13@3.13
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 3.43Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
4:6
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes −3.43@3.43
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 15:00 · 11 h before start
odds 3.37Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
2:6
Vegas Golden Knights
Seattle Kraken −3.37@3.37
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 15:00 · 9 h before start
odds 3.25Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
5:2
New York Islanders
New York Islanders −3.25@3.25
Open on Xexpected 29% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 3.48Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Tampa Bay Lightning
4:1
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers −3.48@3.48
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 15:00 · 9 h before start
odds 2.96Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
1:4
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators −2.96@2.96
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds+1.96 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 15:00 · 9 h before start
odds 2.64Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
5:0
San Jose Sharks
Dallas Stars −2.64@2.64
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds+1.64 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 14:30 · 8 h before start
odds 3.13Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
0:2
New York Rangers
New York Rangers −3.13@3.13
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 14:30 · 9 h before start
odds 2.79Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
2:5
Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes −2.79@2.79
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u