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The Sports Couch

@TheSportsCouch30 followersfirst pick 21 Septusually posts 10 h before start

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Tipster index59.1#102 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
-:-
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6
Hit rate
56.5%
expected 46.0%
Edge
+10.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
23
13-10 · 1 pending
ROI
+22.3%
on 14 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.00 u
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W6, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

012321 Sept29 Sept7 Oct15 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF9-6 · 15 graded
+15.5
60%
Hockey4-2 · 6 graded
+15.8
67%
Basketball0-2 · 2 graded
−42.6
0%
Baseball0-0 · 0 graded
-
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals6-4 · 10 graded
+10.9
60%
Handicap4-2 · 6 graded
+22.3
67%
Parlays1-3 · 4 graded
−13.0
25%
Match result2-1 · 3 graded
+17.0
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-0 · 0 graded
-
-
Even12-6 · 18 graded
+18.5
67%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−39.0
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-1 · 5 graded
+45.6%
80%
1.90…2.295-3 · 8 graded
+23.1%
63%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +58.7 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +8.3 pp
    12-10 · 55%
    ROI +22.3%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:00 · 10 h before start
Pending
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
-:-
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6
Open on Xexpected 78% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 08:54 · 15 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 08:38 · 15 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Memphis Tigers
41:34
East Carolina Pirates
Over 54.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Marshall Thundering Herd
20:13
South Alabama Jaguars
Over 66.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:53 · 5 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
3:4
San Jose Sharks
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:53 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Colorado Avalanche
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:53 · 8 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
4:3
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Detroit Red Wings to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:53 · 9 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
2:6
Tampa Bay Lightning
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 45% by model
Parlay · 3posted 20 Oct, 00:33 · 18 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks −4.5✕
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 18:09 · 6 h before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
65:79
Atlanta Dream
Over 152
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 18:00 · 7 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 6.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Oct, 04:07 · 20 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Over 51.5✕
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Oct, 01:18 · 23 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +8✓
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Over 52✕
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 00:16 · 24 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 00:16 · 24 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 52.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 00:42 · 18 min before start
odds 1.80Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 6.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:27 · 24 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 19:52 · 2 days before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −3
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 12 Oct, 15:08 · 9 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Over 54.5@1.91✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Over 26✓
Open on Xexpected 33% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 23:51 · 24 min before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 05:17 · 19 h before start
odds 2.10Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:20 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Over 51.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:53 · 23 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts −4
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 21 Sept, 18:08 · 6 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
Los Angeles Rams −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model