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Ron F

@ron_f49372 followersfirst pick 30 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Mets,Knicks,Rangers, Jets fan!

NFL & NCAAFBasketballBaseballFootball
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Tipster index59.1#101 on the leaderboardup 98 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Connecticut Huskies
-:-
Massachusetts Minutemen
Massachusetts Minutemen +13.5
Hit rate
54.1%
expected 47.3%
Edge
+6.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
62
33-28-1 · 1 pending
ROI
+20.2%
on 25 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.00 u
Average odds
1.96
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-202429 Aug11 Sept25 Sept9 Oct22 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF29-24-1 · 54 graded
+5.7
55%
Basketball2-1 · 3 graded
+13.3
67%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+25.4
67%
Football0-2 · 2 graded
−2.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap27-18-1 · 46 graded
+7.6
60%
Parlays4-9 · 13 graded
−0.1
31%
Match result2-1 · 3 graded
+25.4
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite8-5 · 13 graded
−5.1
62%
Even20-12-1 · 33 graded
+14.4
63%
Underdog1-2 · 3 graded
+7.6
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.896-3-1 · 10 graded
+22.5%
67%
1.90…2.298-5 · 13 graded
+17.7%
62%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −41.3 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • September 2026
    +0.7 pp
    13-14 · 48%
    ROI −4.4%
  • October 2026
    +13.3 pp
    20-13-1 · 61%
    ROI +36.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:29 · 2 h before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Connecticut Huskies
-:-
Massachusetts Minutemen
Massachusetts Minutemen +13.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:28 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Appalachian State Mountaineers
34:31
James Madison Dukes
James Madison Dukes −12.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:24 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Oct, 21:37 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
23:26
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +10✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
23:26
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
FIU Golden Panthers to win✕
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:32 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:09 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics −1.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 22:24 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers −1
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 18:26 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:02 · 58 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers −3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:26 · 6 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
17:14
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:23 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky Wildcats +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:20 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
BYU Cougars +10.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 18:06 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
21:18
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions +6
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 17 Oct, 14:56 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
45:42
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati Bearcats +1.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
45:42
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati Bearcats to win✕
Open on Xexpected 24% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 16 Oct, 21:40 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +1.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers to win✕
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 21:36 · 2 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Memphis Grizzlies
117:98
Charlotte Hornets
Memphis Grizzlies −6.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 21:33 · 2 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Washington Huskies +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 22:05 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 15 Oct, 22:01 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas State Bobcats
66:27
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State Rams +14.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas State Bobcats
66:27
Colorado State Rams
Texas State Bobcats to win✓
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:51 · 2 h before start
odds 2.50Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:06 · 1 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:01 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −5.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 11 Oct, 15:03 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns +2.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to win✕
Open on Xexpected 22% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 10 Oct, 14:57 · 22 h before start
Lost
Premier League·
Crystal Palace
3:1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest −3.5✕
Premier League·
Crystal Palace
3:1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest to win✕
Open on Xexpected 1% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 21:39 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
31:24
South Florida Bulls
South Florida Bulls +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 20:56 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:46 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:08 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
36:24
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants +2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 15:03 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to win✓
Open on Xexpected 21% by model