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Straight Fire Picks

@RealStraightFP297 followersfirst pick 15 Octusually posts 8 h before start

Sports Betting Handicapper covering all the major sports! Check us out on Youtube: https://t.co/0zuZetsNzp

BasketballNFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index61.9#72 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
68.2%
expected 54.1%
Edge
+14.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 50.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
22
15-7
ROI
+40.1%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.83
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W7, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20215 Oct17 Oct20 Oct23 Oct26 Oct

By sport

Basketball9-3 · 12 graded
+21.4
75%
NFL & NCAAF6-4 · 10 graded
+5.2
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap5-3 · 8 graded
+11.8
63%
Totals5-2 · 7 graded
+9.3
71%
Match result4-2 · 6 graded
+13.6
67%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+67.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite5-2 · 7 graded
+8.1
71%
Even9-5 · 14 graded
+13.2
64%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.895-1 · 6 graded
+45.1%
83%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +14.0 pp
    15-7 · 68%
    ROI +40.1%

By league

  • NBA9-375%+21.4
  • NFL6-460%+5.2

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 22:07 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 22:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 23:00 · 15 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
10:16
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 44.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 22:19 · 19 h before start
odds 1.88Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
13:35
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.88 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:30 · 8 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Chicago Bulls
120:124
Washington Wizards
Under 245.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:30 · 8 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Chicago Bulls
120:124
Washington Wizards
Under 246
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:00 · 9 h before start
odds 1.88Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
114:121
Houston Rockets
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:30 · 7 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Over 50.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:30 · 7 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Over 33
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:30 · 9 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 236.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:00 · 12 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets +9.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards −4.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards −6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.57 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards −6.5✓
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win✓
Open on Xexpected 32% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:00 · 8 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs −2.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 15:30 · 8 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:00 · 6 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 13:00 · 11 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 02:00 · 22 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 53.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:45 · 17 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 13:00 · 11 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model