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Porter Picks

@Porter_Picks74.5K followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 6 h before start

Daily Sports Picks + Detailed Analysis Tracked Results • Full Transparency JOIN PORTER PICKS TODAY 🚀

NFL & NCAAFBaseballHockeyBasketballFootball
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Tipster index33.3#608 on the leaderboarddown 46 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 4

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Wyoming Cowboys +5.5@1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
-:-
Tennessee Volunteers
South Carolina Gamecocks −2.5@1.93DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
-:-
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers +3
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
-:-
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks −2.5@1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
38.6%
expected 50.5%
Edge
−11.9 pp
hit rate at most 48.4% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
71
27-43-1 · 4 pending
ROI
−23.5%
on 57 picks with odds · max drawdown −18.99 u
Average odds
1.92
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W5, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-15-10-503 Aug23 Aug12 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF15-21-1 · 37 graded
−8.7
42%
Baseball7-17 · 24 graded
−20.2
29%
Hockey4-2 · 6 graded
+17.9
67%
Basketball1-2 · 3 graded
−22.0
33%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−74.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap15-19-1 · 35 graded
−7.2
44%
Match result9-13 · 22 graded
−8.7
41%
Totals3-11 · 14 graded
−28.3
21%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-3-1 · 7 graded
−14.9
50%
Even24-40 · 64 graded
−11.6
38%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8911-11 · 22 graded
−7.6%
50%
1.90…2.2912-22 · 34 graded
−31.6%
35%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −20.4 pp
    10-23 · 30%
    ROI −39.2%
  • September 2026
    −20.0 pp
    6-13-1 · 32%
    ROI −44.6%
  • October 2026
    +12.2 pp
    11-7 · 61%
    ROI +26.4%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 18:27 · 29 h before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
-:-
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:24 · 12 h before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Wyoming Cowboys +5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:13 · 30 h before start
odds 1.93DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
-:-
Tennessee Volunteers
South Carolina Gamecocks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:10 · 2 days before start
odds 1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
-:-
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:42 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −2.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:52 · 3 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Under 5.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:04 · 6 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks −4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:36 · 54 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans +3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:46 · 24 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:02 · 2 days before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 19:59 · 3 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:1
New York Islanders
penalties
Under 5.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 20:12 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Over 6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 20:14 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:7
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 22:53 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Minnesota Wild
4:2
Vegas Golden Knights
Minnesota Wild to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:04 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 22:39 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 40.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 17:54 · 5 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
26:27
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 20:09 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Troy State Trojans
55:34
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Troy State Trojans −10@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 19:49 · 4 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:22 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +7
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 19:21 · 5 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern Wildcats +3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 21:11 · 27 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 38.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:43 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
3:0
New York Rangers
New York Rangers to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:55 · 5 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
24:16
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 23:03 · 20 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:28
Ole Miss Rebels
Florida Gators −3@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 15:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
33:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +7@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:08 · 8 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
32:24
LSU Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels +3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 14:22 · 10 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Dallas Wings
97:77
Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks +8.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 18:00 · 6 h before start
odds 2.02Lost
MLB·
Texas Rangers
7:3
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 21:30 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
9:3
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres −1.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u