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Second Read NFL Picks

@2ndreadpicks144 followersfirst pick 18 Octusually posts 8 h before start

computer nerd who built a model for NFL predictions

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index33.5#606 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
32.0%
expected 50.1%
Edge
−18.1 pp
hit rate at most 48.4% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
25
8-17
ROI
−72.1%
on 14 picks with odds · max drawdown −12.00 u
Average odds
1.93
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W4, worst L13

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-8-6-4-2017 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF8-17 · 25 graded
−18.1
32%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap3-9 · 12 graded
−24.6
25%
Totals5-5 · 10 graded
−3.9
50%
Match result0-2 · 2 graded
−46.8
0%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−25.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-0 · 3 graded
+35.3
100%
Even5-16 · 21 graded
−25.4
24%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-5 · 5 graded
−100.0%
0%
1.90…2.292-7 · 9 graded
−56.7%
22%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −18.1 pp
    8-17 · 32%
    ROI −72.1%

By league

  • NFL8-1732%−18.1

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Second Read NFL Picks (@2ndreadpicks) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:43 · 17 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:43 · 17 min before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 5 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars −2.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 8 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants −1.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots −7.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 11 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals +12.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 12 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −5.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 12 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs −7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:45 · 16 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Over 41.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 8 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Over 39.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 8 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Under 52.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 8 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
Under 46.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 8 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 8 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 38.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 8 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Under 44.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Under 51.5✓
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 12 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Under 53.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 12 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Under 41.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 16 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Under 53.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:44 · 40 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Under 52.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model