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EdgeFinderPicks

@EdgeFinderPicks6 followersfirst pick 9 Octusually posts 47 min before start

MLB | NBA | NFL | CBB | CFB | NHL | Data-Driven Picks & Matchup Edges Daily Plays | Tracking Results https://t.co/770hW4KHWd No Parlays. Just Edges 🎯

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballBaseball
Tipster index32.3#611 on the leaderboarddown 53 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.71
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons −5.5@1.91
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
-:-
New York Giants
Houston Texans under 22.5@1.89
Hit rate
37.0%
expected 50.8%
Edge
−13.7 pp
hit rate at most 48.2% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
54
20-34 · 3 pending
ROI
−34.2%
on 41 picks with odds · max drawdown −15.18 u
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W3, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-8-6-4-209 Oct12 Oct16 Oct19 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF13-25 · 38 graded
−17.3
34%
Hockey4-5 · 9 graded
−3.0
44%
Basketball2-3 · 5 graded
−11.5
40%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
−0.2
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap12-21 · 33 graded
−15.7
36%
Match result4-7 · 11 graded
−13.0
36%
Totals4-4 · 8 graded
+0.1
50%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−42.0
0%
Team totals0-0 · 0 graded
-
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-2 · 5 graded
−3.9
60%
Even17-30 · 47 graded
−13.6
36%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.895-13 · 18 graded
−48.1%
28%
1.90…2.299-12 · 21 graded
−16.0%
43%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −13.7 pp
    20-34 · 37%
    ROI −34.2%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:11 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons −5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:11 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:33 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:33 · 27 min before start
odds 1.89Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Kennesaw State Owls +8.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:33 · 27 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:33 · 27 min before start
odds 2.14Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:6
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win@2.14
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.14 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:19 · 3 h before start
odds 1.75Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic to win@1.75
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:19 · 3 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:19 · 4 days before start
odds 1.89Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
-:-
New York Giants
Houston Texans under 22.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:58 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89Won
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Delaware Blue Hens
61:38
Missouri State Bears
Missouri State Bears +3.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:58 · 2 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
2:1
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 21:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Colorado Avalanche
Over 6.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:10 · 1 h before start
odds 1.84Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5@1.84
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.84 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:32 · 47 min before start
odds 1.90Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 20:00 · 5 min before start
odds 1.90Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams −12.5@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 20:00 · 25 min before start
odds 1.86Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5@1.86
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.90Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.90 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers −3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 17 Oct, 22:52 · 7 min before start
odds 1.92Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans −4.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
6:17
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Horned Frogs +4.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners −6.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
17:14
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Under 51.5✓
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:19 · 40 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas State Wildcats
35:24
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas Jayhawks +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:19 · 40 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Bowling Green Falcons
31:32
Ball State Cardinals
Ball State Cardinals +6.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:19 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Under 58.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:09 · 20 min before start
odds 1.85Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −6.5@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:09 · 50 min before start
odds 2.01Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Purdue Boilermakers −3.5@2.01
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:09 · 50 min before start
odds 1.95Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Under 48.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:09 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:4
Boston Bruins
Anaheim Ducks to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 15 Oct, 22:16 · 43 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
7:1
New York Rangers
New York Rangers to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UAB Blazers
30:17
East Carolina Pirates
Under 48.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas State Bobcats
66:27
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State Rams +14.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5✕
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u