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PicksByDk

@PicksByDk315 followersfirst pick 25 Septusually posts 43 min before start

🏈 NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA 🎯 Parlays • SGPs • Daily Picks 📈 Building the bankroll one day at a time #PicksbyDK 21+ | Gamble Responsibly

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index38.0#750 on the leaderboarddown 40 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
33.3%
expected 46.8%
Edge
−13.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 20.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
24
8-16
ROI
−22.3%
on 12 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.71 u
Average odds
1.67
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W2, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-3-2-1024 Sept2 Oct10 Oct17 Oct25 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF5-14 · 19 graded
−17.5
26%
Baseball3-2 · 5 graded
+1.7
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-7 · 10 graded
−29.8
30%
Parlays3-7 · 10 graded
+1.9
30%
Handicap2-2 · 4 graded
−11.3
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-3 · 6 graded
−21.5
50%
Even2-6 · 8 graded
−26.8
25%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-2 · 3 graded
-
33%
1.50…1.892-4 · 6 graded
−42.8%
33%
1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −34.4 pp
    0-5 · 0%
  • October 2026
    −8.0 pp
    8-11 · 42%
    ROI −6.8%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:20 · 40 min before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
16:10
Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.29 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:20 · 40 min before start
odds 1.19DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
21:27
New York Giants
Houston Texans to win
Open on Xexpected 81% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:20 · 40 min before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
13:43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:20 · 40 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
29:20
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons +7.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:20 · 40 min before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:09 · 2 h before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:15 · 1 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:15 · 2 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:15 · 2 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Purdue Boilermakers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 13 Oct, 22:30 · 2 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays +2.5✓
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Under 9.5✓
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Parlay · 5posted 11 Oct, 16:56 · 4 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
Washington Commanders to win↺
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
13:23
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints +7.5✕
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:45 · 45 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars −2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Parlay · 2posted 10 Oct, 23:18 · 11 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win✕
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Parlay · 2posted 7 Oct, 22:58 · 1 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
26:27
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
22:3
New Mexico State Aggies
FIU Golden Panthers to win✓
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 7 Oct, 21:18 · 42 min before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves +3.5✓
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 5.5✕
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 20:58 · 5 h before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.69 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:45 · 15 min before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox +2.5
Open on Xexpected 76% by model
Parlay · 4posted 4 Oct, 16:32 · 27 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
24:18
Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens −6.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
20:24
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
23:12
New York Jets
Chicago Bears to win✓
Open on Xexpected 12% by model
Parlay · 3posted 2 Oct, 22:36 · 23 min before start
odds 4.60Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Delaware Blue Hens
14:30
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames −5.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Virginia Tech Hokies +4.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern Wildcats +7.5✓
Open on Xexpected 19% from odds+3.60 u
Parlay · 2posted 26 Sept, 15:12 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan Wolverines −5.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
27:41
Oregon Ducks
Oregon Ducks to win✓
Open on Xexpected 27% by model
Parlay · 6posted 26 Sept, 14:45 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Maryland Terrapins
3:54
UCLA Bruins
UCLA Bruins +7.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
59:45
Colorado State Rams
UTSA Roadrunners to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
27:30
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Louisville Cardinals −5.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Boston College Eagles
14:21
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech Hokies −5.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
23:13
Colorado Buffaloes
Baylor Bears −2.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
12:7
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +14.5✓
Open on Xexpected 3% by model
Parlay · 3posted 25 Sept, 21:03 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
58:7
Howard Bison
Over 48.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
29:23
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern Wildcats +30.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UAB Blazers
24:20
Navy Midshipmen
Navy Midshipmen −2.5✕
Open on Xexpected 20% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 20:40 · 2 h before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UAB Blazers
24:20
Navy Midshipmen
Navy Midshipmen to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 15:05 · 2 h before start
odds 1.79Lost
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
4:3
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u