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@PettyBets1323 followersfirst pick 23 Septusually posts 3 h before start

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NFL & NCAAFBaseballHockeyBasketball
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Tipster index41.0#648 on the leaderboarddown 95 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
44.2%
expected 50.1%
Edge
−5.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 36.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
95
42-53
ROI
−11.0%
on 82 picks with odds · max drawdown −10.47 u
Average odds
1.95
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W8, worst L11

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-8-6-4-2022 Sept1 Oct11 Oct20 Oct29 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF26-24 · 50 graded
+0.1
52%
Baseball15-28 · 43 graded
−13.4
35%
Hockey0-1 · 1 graded
−42.7
0%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+50.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap14-24 · 38 graded
−13.5
37%
Totals16-13 · 29 graded
+3.1
55%
Match result12-13 · 25 graded
−1.3
48%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−27.0
0%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−52.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-3 · 6 graded
−15.7
50%
Even38-44 · 82 graded
−4.0
46%
Underdog1-4 · 5 graded
−17.4
20%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8922-20 · 42 graded
−5.0%
52%
1.90…2.2914-19 · 33 graded
−14.3%
42%
2.30…3.492-5 · 7 graded
−31.4%
29%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −3.7 pp
    19-23 · 45%
    ROI −13.6%
  • October 2026
    −7.7 pp
    23-30 · 43%
    ROI −8.2%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Petty Bets (@PettyBets13) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 23:06 · 53 min before start
odds 1.72DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.72 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 23:06 · 2 h before start
odds 2.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 23:06 · 53 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
114:119
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:58 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
34:27
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:58 · 24 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:58 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
34:17
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:58 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah Utes
21:13
Houston Cougars
Houston Cougars +6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:36 · 7 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
5:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 23 Oct, 20:24 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
16:19
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
28:14
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons to win✕
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:12 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
24:30
New Mexico State Aggies
Sam Houston State Bearkats under 21.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:44 · 46 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Marshall Thundering Herd
20:13
South Alabama Jaguars
Over 34.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 18:58 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers −7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:49 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky Wildcats +6.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:49 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Houston Cougars
35:32
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Over 68.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:49 · 1 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
43:35
Florida State Seminoles
Miami Hurricanes −20.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:49 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:13 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
45:42
Cincinnati Bearcats
Over 63.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:13 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Florida Gators +12.5
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan State Spartans
21:24
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern Wildcats −7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:13 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes −3.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:13 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
SMU Mustangs
23:13
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers +9.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:30 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Purdue Boilermakers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:30 · 4 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Over 48.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 15 Oct, 20:59 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Under 40.5✓
Open on Xexpected 23% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:19 · 2 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 21:05 · 3 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:7
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays −1.5@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:45 · 15 min before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:27 · 58 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Under 46.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:20 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 18:38 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
35:34
LSU Tigers
Kentucky Wildcats +8.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u