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LineEdge

@LineEdgeBetting36 followersfirst pick 29 Augusually posts 23 h before start

Sports betting analytics 📊 NFL | CFB Powered by FEM — Fiore Edge Model Finding mispriced numbers.

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
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Tipster index41.4#639 on the leaderboardup 20 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Maryland Terrapins
-:-
Illinois Fighting Illini
Maryland Terrapins +3
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Air Force Falcons
-:-
Connecticut Huskies
Connecticut Huskies +1.5@1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Southern Eagles
-:-
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Georgia Southern Eagles −5.5
Hit rate
45.7%
expected 53.7%
Edge
−8.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 32.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
36
16-19-1 · 3 pending
ROI
−61.3%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.00 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W5, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2029 Aug12 Sept27 Sept11 Oct26 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF16-18-1 · 35 graded
−6.5
47%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−57.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap10-11-1 · 22 graded
−5.9
48%
Totals5-5 · 10 graded
−5.8
50%
Match result1-2 · 3 graded
−18.1
33%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−41.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite5-2 · 7 graded
+6.6
71%
Even11-17-1 · 29 graded
−11.6
39%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-4-1 · 5 graded
−80.0%
0%
1.90…2.291-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −13.3 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • September 2026
    −22.7 pp
    5-11-1 · 31%
  • October 2026
    +6.6 pp
    10-7 · 59%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:47 · 3 days before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Air Force Falcons
-:-
Connecticut Huskies
Connecticut Huskies +1.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:47 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Maryland Terrapins
-:-
Illinois Fighting Illini
Maryland Terrapins +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:47 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Southern Eagles
-:-
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Georgia Southern Eagles −5.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:01 · 59 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
29:20
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:01 · 8 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:01 · 59 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
16:10
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts −6.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 23:59 · 45 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nevada Wolf Pack
28:13
San Jose State Spartans
Nevada Wolf Pack −5.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 23:59 · 41 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas Jayhawks
25:24
Baylor Bears
Kansas Jayhawks +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 23:59 · 2 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
34:27
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels under 20
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:03 · 10 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Over 49.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:36 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Over 51
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:04 · 23 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes −2.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:04 · 31 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
0:24
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Over 55.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:04 · 33 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Diego State Aztecs
26:23
Fresno State Bulldogs
Over 45.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:32 · 1 h before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line+1.10 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 11:33 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas State Wildcats
16:35
Houston Cougars
Houston Cougars +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 11:33 · 8 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
15:17
UCLA Bruins
Oregon Ducks −10
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 11:33 · 8 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −7
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 2 Oct, 17:26 · 2 days before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos +3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 17:26 · 2 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −3
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:22 · 3 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:24
New York Jets
Detroit Lions −6.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:13 · 46 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Toledo Rockets
41:16
San Diego State Aztecs
Under 51.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:13 · 2 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
35:6
Texas A&M Aggies
Under 51.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:13 · 2 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
24:41
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Under 60.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:13 · 2 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
New Mexico State Aggies
18:42
New Mexico Lobos
Under 48.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:13 · 2 days before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
49:18
South Carolina Gamecocks
Under 53.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 23:27 · 3 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
3:34
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 23:27 · 2 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
32:24
LSU Tigers
Under 59.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 14 Sept, 10:37 · 14 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 14:08 · 6 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:13
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model