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Pepper Picks

@Pepper_Picks79 followersfirst pick 3 Octusually posts 2 h before start

Daily sports bets with a kick. Picks. Props. Parlays. Researched in the lab.

TennisNFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseballFootballBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index51.9#277 on the leaderboarddown 87 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
57.7%
expected 56.2%
Edge
+1.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 46.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
52
30-22
ROI
−6.0%
on 47 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.74 u
Average odds
1.70
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W7, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10122 Oct7 Oct12 Oct17 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Tennis11-7 · 18 graded
−1.7
61%
NFL & NCAAF6-8 · 14 graded
−9.3
43%
Hockey6-2 · 8 graded
+25.7
75%
Baseball3-4 · 7 graded
−10.7
43%
Football2-1 · 3 graded
+8.4
67%
Basketball2-0 · 2 graded
+41.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result28-14 · 42 graded
+9.3
67%
Handicap1-4 · 5 graded
−33.6
20%
Parlays0-3 · 3 graded
−45.4
0%
Totals1-1 · 2 graded
−4.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite12-5 · 17 graded
+3.7
71%
Even17-14 · 31 graded
+2.8
55%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+66.1
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.508-2 · 10 graded
+11.3%
80%
1.50…1.8912-12 · 24 graded
−13.6%
50%
1.90…2.295-4 · 9 graded
+10.9%
56%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +1.5 pp
    30-22 · 58%
    ROI −6.0%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:50 · 1 h before start
odds 1.63Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:06 · 3 h before start
odds 1.47Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
LA Lakers to win@1.47
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.47 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 23:05 · 2 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:46 · 1 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
2:1
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 19 Oct, 23:03 · 56 min before start
odds 2.02Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians +2.5@1.31✕
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +10.5@1.54✓
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 04:14 · 2 h before start
odds 1.53Lost
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Miomir Kecmanovic
0:2
James Duckworth
Miomir Kecmanovic to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 04:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Won
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Ashlyn Krueger
2:0
Janice Tjen
Ashlyn Krueger to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.73 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 22:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:08 · 1 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:04 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:50 · 2 h before start
odds 1.58Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.58 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win@1.86
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.86 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 05:52 · 7 h before start
odds 1.48Won
Premier League·
Brighton
5:0
Crystal Palace
Brighton to win@1.48
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.48 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 05:52 · 10 h before start
odds 1.56Won
Premier League·
Nottingham Forest
0:1
Arsenal
Arsenal to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 05:50 · 7 h before start
odds 1.94Lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
Over 2.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 05:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.70Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
2:1
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 17 Oct, 20:55 · 3 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners to win@1.42✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Houston Cougars
35:32
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Houston Cougars to win@1.52✓
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 17 Oct, 16:20 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels to win@1.49✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win@1.23✕
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:07 · 52 min before start
odds 1.67Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 22:52 · 8 min before start
odds 1.76Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
7:1
New York Rangers
New Jersey Devils to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 03:44 · 8 h before start
odds 1.44Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Tommy Paul
2:0
Zizou Bergs
Tommy Paul to win@1.44
Open on Xexpected 66% from odds+0.44 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 03:44 · 6 h before start
odds 1.59Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Daniil Medvedev
2:0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 23:20 · 1 h before start
odds 1.98Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
2:3
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 23:20 · 1 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
2:5
Vegas Golden Knights
Nashville Predators to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 22:29 · 2 h before start
odds 1.76Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 22:25 · 49 min before start
odds 2.32Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
4:1
Tampa Bay Lightning
New York Rangers to win@2.32
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.32 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 04:19 · 9 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Hubert Hurkacz
1:2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Over 2.5 sets
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 04:19 · 27 h before start
Void
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Casper Ruud
void
Felix Auger Aliassime
Felix Auger Aliassime to win
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 12 Oct, 23:40 · 20 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Minnesota Wild
4:2
Vegas Golden Knights
Minnesota Wild to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 23:18 · 57 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model