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SmoothManSports

@SmoothManSports6.4K followersfirst pick 7 Augusually posts 11 h before start

#atp tennis & #nfl markets analyst sports first. trading second blending both. @sharpcirclebet @thetailgateapp | https://t.co/rX6QZawJqj CODE: SMOOTH

TennisNFL & NCAAFFootball
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Tipster index49.5#246 on the leaderboarddown 100 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
47.6%
expected 48.0%
Edge
−0.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 37.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
63
30-33
ROI
−1.8%
on 46 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.47 u
Average odds
2.01
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W4, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-106 Aug23 Aug8 Sept25 Sept11 Oct

By sport

Tennis24-26 · 50 graded
+1.0
48%
NFL & NCAAF6-6 · 12 graded
−1.7
50%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−56.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result24-26 · 50 graded
−1.1
48%
Parlays3-3 · 6 graded
+25.0
50%
Handicap2-2 · 4 graded
−8.0
50%
Totals1-2 · 3 graded
−28.4
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-3 · 6 graded
−13.9
50%
Even21-21 · 42 graded
−2.2
50%
Underdog3-6 · 9 graded
+0.1
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8915-11 · 26 graded
+0.8%
58%
1.90…2.294-4 · 8 graded
+1.5%
50%
2.30…3.492-6 · 8 graded
−36.0%
25%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −2.7 pp
    16-19 · 46%
    ROI −6.3%
  • September 2026
    −1.1 pp
    8-8 · 50%
    ROI −10.7%
  • October 2026
    +7.4 pp
    6-6 · 50%
    ROI +37.2%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:36 · 16 h before start
odds 1.96Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
2:1
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe to win@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:15 · 59 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 04:32 · 5 h before start
odds 1.77Void
ATP 500 · China Open·
Alex de Minaur
void
Hubert Hurkacz
Alex de Minaur to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds
Singleposted 5 Oct, 00:06 · 13 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Over 50.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 07:01 · 10 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to win@2.33✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 24% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 07:01 · 10 h before start
odds 2.40Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys +2.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@2.40✓
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.40 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 07:01 · 10 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
23:12
New York Jets
Over 41.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 07:01 · 13 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 07:01 · 13 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to win@4.00✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5✓
Open on Xexpected 16% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 00:47 · 6 h before start
Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Alex de Minaur
2:1
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev to win@2.17✕
ATP 500 · China Open·
Alex de Minaur
2:1
Andrey Rublev
Over 2.5 sets✓
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Singleposted 2 Oct, 01:46 · 24 h before start
odds 2.35Lost
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Denis Shapovalov
2:1
Alejandro Tabilo
Alejandro Tabilo to win@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 01:46 · 2 h before start
odds 2.50Won
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Valentin Vacherot
2:1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Valentin Vacherot to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 1 Oct, 00:42 · 1 h before start
odds 3.33Won
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Brandon Nakashima
0:2
Ugo Humbert
Ugo Humbert +1.5 sets✓
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Brandon Nakashima
0:2
Ugo Humbert
Ugo Humbert to win@3.33✓
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds+2.33 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 22:34 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Under 55.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 22:34 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills to win
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 01:36 · 15 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
33:27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 01:36 · 19 h before start
odds 1.64Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:13
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders to win@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.64 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 01:36 · 23 h before start
odds 1.64Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
28:20
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 11 Sept, 05:43 · 14 h before start
odds 5.56Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Karen Khachanov
Over 3.5 sets✕
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov to win@5.56✕
Open on Xexpected 16% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 01:24 · 2 h before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Ben Shelton
3:2
Carlos Alcaraz
Ben Shelton to win
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 4 Sept, 16:06 · 7 h before start
odds 1.61Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Valentin Vacherot
0:3
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.61 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 05:51 · 15 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Jiri Lehecka
1:3
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Jiri Lehecka to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 05:51 · 16 h before start
odds 2.04Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Tomas Etcheverry
3:0
Mariano Navone
Tomas Etcheverry to win@2.04
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.04 u
Singleposted 3 Sept, 04:09 · 15 h before start
odds 1.83Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexei Popyrin
1:3
Alejandro Tabilo
Alejandro Tabilo to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 3 Sept, 04:09 · 11 h before start
odds 1.71Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Luciano Darderi
3:1
Dalibor Svrcina
Luciano Darderi to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 06:01 · 9 h before start
odds 2.63Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Jaume Munar
0:3
Arthur Rinderknech
Jaume Munar to win@2.63
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 06:01 · 11 h before start
odds 1.89Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Marcos Giron
2:3
Ignacio Buse
Ignacio Buse to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 06:01 · 11 h before start
odds 2.35Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Zachary Svajda
3:1
Daniel Altmaier
Daniel Altmaier to win@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Sept, 03:33 · 11 h before start
odds 2.33Void
US Open · Men's Singles·
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
void
Casper Ruud
Juan Manuel Cerundolo to win@2.33
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds
Singleposted 1 Sept, 03:33 · 20 h before start
odds 1.79Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Adolfo Vallejo
1:3
Gael Monfils
Adolfo Vallejo to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u