PayLay

@Payusinlays134 followersfirst pick 11 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Here we don’t force action just to have a play. Research. Patience. Value. Execute. Our parlays are paylays!

NFL & NCAAFBasketball

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Tipster index54.2needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 37.3%

Edge

+12.7 pp

over expectation

Graded

3-3

ROI

+12.3%

on 6 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u

Average odds

2.72

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-1 · 4 graded

+37.2

75%

Basketball0-2 · 2 graded

−36.2

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-3 · 6 graded

+12.7

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even2-1 · 3 graded

+22.5

67%

Underdog1-2 · 3 graded

+2.9

33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded

67%

2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded

50%

3.50+0-1 · 1 graded

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).