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MattyLockz

@MattLockzz257 followersfirst pick 22 Octusually posts 4 h before start

Sports betting is fun but I end up winning DM for VIP plays📲

BasketballNFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseballFootballTennis
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Tipster index52.2#353 on the leaderboarddown 102 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
53.3%
expected 52.1%
Edge
+1.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 47.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
196
104-91-1
ROI
−1.4%
on 157 picks with odds · max drawdown −16.98 u
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W10, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2024622 Oct25 Oct28 Oct31 Oct4 Nov

By sport

Basketball42-37 · 79 graded
+2.0
53%
NFL & NCAAF41-36-1 · 78 graded
+0.9
53%
Hockey13-13 · 26 graded
−3.6
50%
Baseball4-2 · 6 graded
+9.7
67%
Football3-2 · 5 graded
+9.7
60%
Tennis1-1 · 2 graded
+1.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap55-49-1 · 105 graded
+0.3
53%
Totals19-23 · 42 graded
−7.8
45%
Match result24-14 · 38 graded
+11.9
63%
Parlays3-5 · 8 graded
−6.0
38%
Team totals2-0 · 2 graded
+44.6
100%
Both teams to score1-0 · 1 graded
+42.6
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite13-8 · 21 graded
−4.6
62%
Even87-75-1 · 163 graded
+2.5
54%
Underdog1-3 · 4 graded
−5.2
25%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.8940-22 · 62 graded
+13.5%
65%
1.90…2.2938-46-1 · 85 graded
−12.5%
45%
2.30…3.492-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
3.50+0-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +0.3 pp
    96-87-1 · 52%
    ROI −3.8%
  • November 2026
    +16.1 pp
    8-4 · 67%
    ROI +34.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 3 Nov, 21:30 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Akron Zips
20:28
Ohio Bobcats
Over 51@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 21:30 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami RedHawks
31:34
Buffalo Bulls
Buffalo Bulls +6.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 21:30 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
2:3
Utah Mammoth
Over 6.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 21:30 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
2:3
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 21:30 · 4 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NCAA · Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
111:50
Cleveland State Vikings
Over 160.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 21:30 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Akron Zips
20:28
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio Bobcats −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 3 Nov, 21:30 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami RedHawks
31:34
Buffalo Bulls
Buffalo Bulls +7.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 10 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Boise State Broncos
46:45
Texas State Bobcats
Over 63.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 7 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida State Seminoles
24:36
Clemson Tigers
Florida State Seminoles −5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
odds 1.97Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah State Aggies
31:14
Colorado State Rams
Utah State Aggies −7.5@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.97 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
52:24
Stanford Cardinal
Louisville Cardinals −22@1.91✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
52:24
Stanford Cardinal
Under 42@1.91✕
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
27:8
Florida Gators
Over 55.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
23:16
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Indiana Hoosiers −20.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
27:20
Arizona State Sun Devils
BYU Cougars −16.5
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bearcats
25:49
Utah Utes
Utah Utes −6.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
30:18
Ohio State Buckeyes
Over 50.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 7 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
2:4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs over 3.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 4 h before start
odds 2.14Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
1:5
Ottawa Senators
San Jose Sharks to win@2.14
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 37 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
45:15
Auburn Tigers
Under 58.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
odds 2.35Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
27:8
Florida Gators
Georgia Bulldogs to win@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.35 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 7 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
North Carolina Tar Heels
35:38
Miami Hurricanes
North Carolina Tar Heels +16
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.63Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
27:24
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State Wildcats +5@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds+0.63 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
27:8
Florida Gators
Florida Gators +14@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 6 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Southern Eagles
19:3
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 26 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
19:15
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions −3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 26 h before start
odds 1.94Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
27:6
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers −3.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 26 h before start
odds 1.96Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
36:10
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +3@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
25:42
South Carolina Gamecocks
Oklahoma Sooners −3.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 3 h before start
odds 1.94Push
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
TCU Horned Frogs
22:16
Kansas Jayhawks
TCU Horned Frogs −6@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 16:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
27:24
Kansas State Wildcats
Colorado Buffaloes to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u