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BertsBets

@Berts__Bets1.2K followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 8 h before start

Sports bettor 📊💰 Breaking down lines in NBA, MLB, NHL, WNBA, soccer & ponies 🏀⚾️🏒⚽️🐎

FootballNFL & NCAAFBaseballHockeyBasketball
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Tipster index56.0#175 on the leaderboarddown 48 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
56.8%
expected 51.7%
Edge
+5.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
46
25-19-2
ROI
+0.7%
on 40 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.56 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W8, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20243 Aug24 Aug14 Sept5 Oct26 Oct

By sport

Football11-10-2 · 23 graded
−1.4
52%
NFL & NCAAF8-5 · 13 graded
+12.9
62%
Baseball3-2 · 5 graded
+6.2
60%
Hockey2-2 · 4 graded
+0.7
50%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+51.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals9-8 · 17 graded
+0.3
53%
Handicap7-5-2 · 14 graded
+8.7
58%
Match result7-4 · 11 graded
+11.2
64%
Both teams to score2-0 · 2 graded
+54.1
100%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−64.3
0%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−53.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite5-2-1 · 8 graded
+9.2
71%
Even20-16-1 · 37 graded
+5.9
56%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.899-8-1 · 18 graded
−9.0%
53%
1.90…2.2912-8 · 20 graded
+19.6%
60%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +27.3 pp
    8-2 · 80%
    ROI +31.6%
  • September 2026
    −1.5 pp
    11-11-1 · 50%
    ROI −7.0%
  • October 2026
    −1.4 pp
    6-6-1 · 50%
    ROI −4.0%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:58 · 8 h before start
odds 2.38Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win@2.38
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:58 · 10 h before start
odds 1.98Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
2:4
Minnesota Wild
Over 6.5@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:58 · 8 h before start
odds 1.94Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
93:106
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 7 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 6 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.90 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 1 h before start
odds 1.65Lost
Uruguay · Copa Uruguay·
Boston River
0:0
River Plate
penalties
River Plate to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95Won
Primera A: Clausura·
Atletico Junior
1:1
Deportivo Pereira
Both teams to score: yes@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 7 h before start
odds 1.50Lost
Copa Libertadores 2026 · Semi-Finals·
Fluminense
1:2
Palmeiras
Under 2.5@1.50
Open on Xexpected 64% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 6 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
MLS·
Inter Miami CF
2:0
New York City FC
Over 2.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 6 h before start
odds 1.80Push
USA · USL Championship·
Hartford Athletic
1:1
Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery draw no bet@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:26 · 6 h before start
odds 1.56Won
USA · USL Championship·
Rhode Island
1:0
Loudoun United
Rhode Island to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 15:30 · 11 h before start
odds 2.27Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
4:3
Florida Panthers
San Jose Sharks to win@2.27
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.27 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:52 · 7 min before start
odds 2.00Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
41:7
Akron Zips
Akron Zips +22.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:52 · 4 h before start
odds 1.96Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
34:41
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.5@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.96 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:52 · 10 h before start
odds 2.06Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Boise State Broncos
38:24
South Dakota Coyotes
Over 59.5@2.06
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds+1.06 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 09:37 · 14 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
Primera Division · Primera División·
Union La Calera
1:0
Club Deportes Limache
Over 2.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 09:37 · 15 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
Primera A: Clausura·
America de Cali
0:1
Deportivo Pasto
America de Cali −1.5@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 14 Sept, 09:37 · 15 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos +10.5@1.71✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Over 34.5@1.71✓
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 15:16 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
10:23
New York Jets
New York Jets +1.5@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.90 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 15:16 · 9 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
28:20
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys −3@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 09:24 · 10 h before start
Lost
LaLiga·
Sevilla
1:0
Valencia
Sevilla over 1.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 09:24 · 3 days before start
Push
Serie B·
Fortaleza
1:1
Ceara
Fortaleza draw no bet
Open on Xexpected 89% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 09:24 · 16 h before start
odds 1.62DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Necaxa
0:1
Puebla
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 10:44 · 14 h before start
odds 1.54Won
Copa Libertadores 2026 · Quarter-Finals·
Independiente del Valle
0:2
Flamengo
Under 2.5@1.54
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.54 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 10:44 · 14 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
Primera A: Clausura·
Millonarios
1:1
Deportivo Cali
Over 2.5@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 10:44 · 8 h before start
odds 1.84Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester United
4:0
Sabah FK
Sabah FK +3@1.84
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 16:35 · 8 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Under 51.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 10:21 · 3 h before start
odds 1.87Won
Premier League·
Everton
2:2
Manchester United
Everton +0.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 10:21 · 11 h before start
odds 1.74Won
Serie A·
Delfin
0:1
Universidad Catolica
Under 2.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u