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Fifty Four Percent

@FftyFourPercent323 followersfirst pick 6 Augusually posts 7 h before start

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NFL & NCAAFTennisBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index54.9#244 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
60.0%
expected 50.1%
Edge
+9.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 35.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
10
6-4
ROI
+11.6%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.05 u
Average odds
2.02
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1-0.500.515 Aug27 Aug18 Sept10 Oct1 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF2-2 · 4 graded
−1.3
50%
Baseball3-1 · 4 graded
+26.2
75%
Tennis1-1 · 2 graded
−0.4
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result5-4 · 9 graded
+7.5
56%
Handicap1-0 · 1 graded
+31.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+31.4
100%
Even5-3 · 8 graded
+13.2
63%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−37.8
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-2 · 3 graded
-
33%
1.90…2.294-1 · 5 graded
+64.0%
80%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

  • August 2026
    −2.4 pp
    1-1 · 50%
  • September 2026
    +57.2 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +20.8 pp
    3-1 · 75%
  • November 2026
    −12.2 pp
    1-2 · 33%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 1 Nov, 15:27 · 6 h before start
odds 2.02Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
28:24
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 15:27 · 3 h before start
odds 2.52Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
19:15
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings to win@2.52
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 15:27 · 3 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
33:38
Las Vegas Raiders
New York Jets to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:32 · 7 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Terence Atmane
2:0
Rinky Hijikata
Rinky Hijikata to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:32 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Cristina Bucsa
0:2
Polina Kudermetova
Polina Kudermetova to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:32 · 10 h before start
odds 1.71Void
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Jelena Ostapenko
void
Belinda Bencic
Belinda Bencic to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:32 · 9 h before start
odds 2.15Void
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Katerina Siniakova
void
Peyton Stearns
Peyton Stearns to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:19 · 41 min before start
odds 2.00Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 20:00 · 24 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 2 Sept, 18:34 · 2 h before start
odds 2.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
3:8
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line+1.23 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 05:30 · 18 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
5:4
Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 6 Aug, 04:45 · 15 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
0:11
Detroit Tigers
Seattle Mariners to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u