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Lucy

@Lucypicks_22 followersfirst pick 29 Septusually posts 14 h before start

👑 Your Daily Sports Picks ⚾ MLB | 🏈 NFL | 🏀 NBA 📊 Picks • Stats • Matchups 🔥 Daily plays & game-day reactions 🔗 https://t.co/J2u72sapRB

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Tipster index43.5#647 on the leaderboarddown 104 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
-:-
Oklahoma City Thunder
Cleveland Cavaliers to win@1.56DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
-:-
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks to win@1.11DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
-:-
Chicago Bulls
Philadelphia 76ers to win@1.17DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Dallas Mavericks
-:-
Sacramento Kings
Dallas Mavericks to win@1.25DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
-:-
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
52.3%
expected 57.7%
Edge
−5.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
44
23-21 · 7 pending
ROI
−4.7%
on 33 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.13 u
Average odds
1.65
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W6, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-3-2-1028 Sept7 Oct15 Oct24 Oct2 Nov

By sport

Basketball18-16 · 34 graded
−4.0
53%
NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
−11.4
50%
Baseball2-2 · 4 graded
−8.6
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result19-11 · 30 graded
+1.4
63%
Handicap2-7 · 9 graded
−32.6
22%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+13.2
67%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−13.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite14-5 · 19 graded
+3.5
74%
Even8-13 · 21 graded
−15.0
38%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+19.2
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5010-2 · 12 graded
+8.2%
83%
1.50…1.897-8 · 15 graded
−24.3%
47%
1.90…2.292-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −8.6 pp
    2-2 · 50%
  • October 2026
    −5.8 pp
    19-17 · 53%
    ROI −3.6%
  • November 2026
    +0.7 pp
    2-2 · 50%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 2 Nov, 00:18 · 24 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line
Singleposted 1 Nov, 22:55 · 25 h before start
odds 1.56DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
-:-
Oklahoma City Thunder
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line
Singleposted 1 Nov, 22:55 · 26 h before start
odds 1.11DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
-:-
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 86% from the closing line
Singleposted 1 Nov, 22:55 · 26 h before start
odds 1.17DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
-:-
Chicago Bulls
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Open on Xexpected 82% from the closing line
Singleposted 1 Nov, 22:55 · 26 h before start
odds 1.25DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Dallas Mavericks
-:-
Sacramento Kings
Dallas Mavericks to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line
Singleposted 1 Nov, 22:55 · 26 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
-:-
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 80% from the closing line
Singleposted 1 Nov, 22:55 · 27 h before start
odds 1.07DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
-:-
Utah Jazz
San Antonio Spurs to win
Open on Xexpected 89% from the closing line
Parlay · 4posted 1 Nov, 10:09 · 10 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
97:108
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
90:98
Brooklyn Nets
Indiana Pacers to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
124:112
LA Clippers
Golden State Warriors to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
131:125
Toronto Raptors
LA Lakers to win✓
Open on Xexpected 14% by model
Singleposted 1 Nov, 10:04 · 10 h before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
97:108
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.35 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 10:04 · 12 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
90:98
Brooklyn Nets
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 10:04 · 15 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
124:112
LA Clippers
Golden State Warriors to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 01:36 · 22 h before start
odds 1.37DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
127:101
LA Clippers
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line+0.37 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 01:31 · 22 h before start
odds 1.12DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
125:111
Chicago Bulls
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 85% from the closing line+0.12 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 01:31 · 22 h before start
odds 1.32DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
94:110
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 73% from the closing line+0.32 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 01:31 · 22 h before start
odds 1.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
145:125
Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.30 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 01:31 · 22 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Dallas Mavericks
116:111
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 14:19 · 10 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
114:111
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 14:19 · 10 h before start
odds 2.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
132:120
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings to win
Open on Xexpected 33% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 00:31 · 25 h before start
odds 3.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
103:124
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Open on Xexpected 29% from the closing line+2.30 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 00:29 · 24 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
27:19
Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.54 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:16 · 14 h before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
109:114
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.35 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:16 · 14 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
117:129
Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 14 h before start
odds 1.25DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
121:111
Washington Wizards
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line+0.25 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 15 h before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
91:104
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.55 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 16 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Dallas Mavericks
120:96
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 17 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
87:103
LA Lakers
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 15 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
114:119
Golden State Warriors
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 15 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Chicago Bulls
127:133
New York Knicks
Chicago Bulls +6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 14 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
121:111
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +9.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:14 · 14 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
129:99
Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic +4.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model