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NBA Prop King

@NBAPropKing_29 followersfirst pick 21 Octusually posts 13 h before start

🏀 NBA Prop Betting Specialist 🏒King's Men = My Top Shot Props Daily 📊Data-Backed ⬇️Free Picks

BasketballHockeyFootballNFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index39.3#671 on the leaderboarddown 135 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 56.6%
Edge
−6.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 42.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
130
65-65
ROI
−24.7%
on 98 picks with odds · max drawdown −24.76 u
Average odds
1.76
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W6, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10-7.5-5-2.5020 Oct22 Oct24 Oct26 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Basketball34-35 · 69 graded
−7.4
49%
Hockey11-16 · 27 graded
−12.0
41%
Football11-7 · 18 graded
−2.5
61%
NFL & NCAAF9-7 · 16 graded
+1.4
56%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result49-43 · 92 graded
−6.0
53%
Handicap11-14 · 25 graded
−12.7
44%
Totals5-4 · 9 graded
+2.5
56%
Parlays0-4 · 4 graded
−2.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite35-20 · 55 graded
−7.0
64%
Even29-35 · 64 graded
−5.7
45%
Underdog1-6 · 7 graded
−14.2
14%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5020-9 · 29 graded
−14.3%
69%
1.50…1.8923-18 · 41 graded
−5.9%
56%
1.90…2.294-12 · 16 graded
−50.4%
25%
2.30…3.491-8 · 9 graded
−73.1%
11%
3.50+0-3 · 3 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −6.6 pp
    65-65 · 50%
    ROI −24.7%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Parlay · 10posted 28 Oct, 08:20 · 15 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:2
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:0
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
New Jersey Devils
Colorado Avalanche to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Seattle Kraken to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
121:111
Washington Wizards
Cleveland Cavaliers to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
109:114
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
100:132
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
91:104
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Dallas Mavericks
120:96
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
111:117
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs to win✓
Open on Xexpected 2% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 10 h before start
Won
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
CD Manacor
0:5
Villarreal
Villarreal to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 10 h before start
odds 1.39DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Serie A·
AS Roma
4:2
Cagliari
AS Roma to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.39 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 10 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Recreativo Huelva
1:1
Rayo Vallecano
after extra time
Rayo Vallecano to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 7 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Cuarte CD
0:2
Girona
Girona to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 8 h before start
Lost
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Sestao
2:2
Espanyol
after extra time
Espanyol to win
Open on Xexpected 12% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 8 h before start
Won
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Atletico Pinatarense
1:3
Elche
Elche to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 9 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Castellonense
0:0
Almeria
after extra time
Almeria to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:15 · 10 h before start
Won
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Sporting de Alcazar
0:3
Malaga
Malaga to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 13 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:4
Columbus Blue Jackets
Philadelphia Flyers to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 14 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
2:1
Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins +1.5
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 14 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
2:1
Los Angeles Kings
Chicago Blackhawks to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 14 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
0:2
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 14 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
3:4
New York Islanders
penalties
Nashville Predators to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 14 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
1:5
New Jersey Devils
Dallas Stars +1.5
Open on Xexpected 93% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 14 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
1:5
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 15 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
1:3
Minnesota Wild
Utah Mammoth to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 16 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
4:1
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.58 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 16 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
5:6
Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim Ducks to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:10 · 16 h before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
0:2
Buffalo Sabres
San Jose Sharks to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:08 · 13 h before start
odds 1.13DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
125:124
Brooklyn Nets
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 85% from the closing line+0.13 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:08 · 14 h before start
odds 2.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
111:97
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 39% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:08 · 14 h before start
odds 1.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
130:103
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs to win
Open on Xexpected 91% from the closing line+0.05 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:08 · 17 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
129:136
Portland Trail Blazers
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Parlay · 8posted 27 Oct, 10:07 · 13 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
125:124
Brooklyn Nets
Boston Celtics to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
111:97
Detroit Pistons
New York Knicks to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
130:103
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs −14.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
1:5
New Jersey Devils
Dallas Stars to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
2:1
Boston Bruins
Carolina Hurricanes to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
1:5
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
4:1
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
0:2
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win✓
Open on Xexpected 2% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 20:35 · 2 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
110:103
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +7.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 20:35 · 4 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
105:110
Memphis Grizzlies
Utah Jazz +4.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Parlay · 8posted 26 Oct, 20:35 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5✕
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
3:4
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Edmonton Oilers to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
5:2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
134:99
Chicago Bulls
Boston Celtics to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
109:113
Dallas Mavericks
Miami Heat to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
125:114
Phoenix Suns
Oklahoma City Thunder to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Denver Nuggets
114:134
Golden State Warriors
Denver Nuggets to win✕
Open on Xexpected 4% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 20:34 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
110:103
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 20:34 · 3 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
134:99
Chicago Bulls
Under 231.5
Open on Xexpected 61% by model