Leo

@LeoDiCapper125 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 47 min before start

Not a capper, just sharing bets I personally back with my own money. ($1,000 = 1 unit)

FootballBaseballNFL & NCAAFTennisBasketball

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Tipster index58.9#126 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Hit rate

57.6%

expected 51.9%

Edge

+5.7 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 49.6%, the edge is within noise

Graded

106

61-45

ROI

−1.1%

on 78 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.91 u

Average odds

1.74

singles with odds

Form

streak W5 · best W8, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Football38-31 · 69 graded

+5.0

55%

Baseball12-7 · 19 graded

+6.7

63%

NFL & NCAAF5-3 · 8 graded

+11.6

63%

Tennis3-4 · 7 graded

−14.3

43%

Basketball3-0 · 3 graded

+45.4

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays15-14 · 29 graded

+10.8

52%

Both teams to score14-11 · 25 graded

+1.1

56%

Match result19-6 · 25 graded

+20.7

76%

Handicap4-7 · 11 graded

−22.1

36%

Totals3-3 · 6 graded

−8.2

50%

Team totals3-3 · 6 graded

−8.2

50%

Double chance3-1 · 4 graded

+21.3

75%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-4 · 11 graded

−0.6

64%

Even39-27 · 66 graded

+4.5

59%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8933-22 · 55 graded

+1.5%

60%

1.90…2.293-3 · 6 graded

−2.5%

50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
+6.5 pp
18-14 · 56%
ROI −31.2%
September 2026
+2.1 pp
23-19 · 55%
ROI +4.9%
October 2026
+9.6 pp
20-12 · 63%
ROI +5.1%

By league

MLB · USA12-763%+6.7
UEFA Nations League8-280%+26.2
Serie A · Italy6-275%+22.6
Championship · England3-538%−15.0
Premier League · England3-350%+1.3
NFL4-180%+25.1
Europa League2-250%−9.3
Ligue 1 · France1-325%−24.1
ATP 10002-167%+2.3
NCAAF1-233%−10.9

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 18:47 · 13 min before start

odds 1.70Won

EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·28 Oct, 19:00

ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne

82:75

Partizan

Under 170@1.70

Singleposted 28 Oct, 17:53 · 6 min before start

odds 1.71Won

EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·28 Oct, 18:00

Hapoel Tel Aviv

118:88

Anadolu Efes

Hapoel Tel Aviv −4.5@1.71

Singleposted 28 Oct, 15:09 · 2 h before start

odds 1.69Won

ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·28 Oct, 17:05

Jurij Rodionov

0:2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@1.69

Same-game combo · 2posted 27 Oct, 18:01 · 2 h before start

Won

Serie A·27 Oct, 19:45

AS Roma

4:2

Cagliari

AS Roma to win✓

Serie A·27 Oct, 19:45

AS Roma

4:2

Cagliari

Over 1.5✓

Same-game combo · 2posted 27 Oct, 18:01 · 2 h before start

Won

Serie A·27 Oct, 19:45

Torino

1:3

Como 1907

Both teams to score: yes✓

Serie A·27 Oct, 19:45

Torino

1:3

Como 1907

Over 2.5✓

Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:30 · 15 min before start

Lost

Conference League · League Stage·22 Oct, 16:45

Jablonec

0:0

Brighton

Brighton over 1.5

Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:30 · 15 min before start

Won

Europa League · League Stage·22 Oct, 16:45

OFI Crete

0:2

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5

Parlay · 2posted 21 Oct, 18:14 · 46 min before start

Lost

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Club Brugge

3:0

Lens

Club Brugge to win✓

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Sporting CP

2:3

LASK

Sporting CP −1✕

Singleposted 21 Oct, 01:21 · 8 min before start

odds 1.83Won

NBA · Regular season·21 Oct, 01:30

San Antonio Spurs

104:116

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.83

Singleposted 19 Oct, 16:05 · 24 min before start

odds 1.77Lost

Serie A·19 Oct, 16:30

Monza

4:0

Cagliari

Both teams to score: yes@1.77

Singleposted 18 Oct, 18:00 · 44 min before start

odds 1.87Lost

Serie A·18 Oct, 18:45

Juventus

0:3

Lazio

Both teams to score: yes@1.87

Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:31 · 44 min before start

odds 1.77Lost

Ligue 1·18 Oct, 15:15

Lorient

1:0

AS Monaco

Both teams to score: yes@1.77

Singleposted 18 Oct, 12:31 · 29 min before start

Won

Premier League·18 Oct, 13:00

Leeds United

1:1

Manchester United

Both teams to score: yes

Parlay · 2posted 13 Oct, 18:06 · 53 min before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·13 Oct, 19:00

RB Leipzig

1:0

PSV Eindhoven

RB Leipzig to win✓

Champions League · League Stage·13 Oct, 19:00

Villarreal

3:1

Napoli

Both teams to score: yes✓

Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:04 · 21 min before start

odds 1.75Lost

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 20:25

Seattle Seahawks

29:32

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks −2.5@1.75

Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:36 · 24 min before start

odds 1.72Won

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 17:00

New York Jets

17:12

Cleveland Browns

New York Jets to win@1.72

Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:26 · 2 h before start

odds 1.63Won

Serie A·11 Oct, 16:00

Sassuolo

1:1

AC Milan

Both teams to score: yes@1.63

Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:09 · 1 h before start

odds 1.66Won

Bundesliga·11 Oct, 15:30

Freiburg

2:1

Schalke 04

Freiburg over 1.5@1.66

Same-game combo · 2posted 11 Oct, 13:54 · 2 h before start

odds 2.00Lost

Premier League·11 Oct, 15:30

Liverpool

0:3

Manchester City

Manchester City or draw@2.00✓

Premier League·11 Oct, 15:30

Liverpool

0:3

Manchester City

Both teams to score: yes@2.00✕

Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:35 · 24 min before start

odds 1.74Won

Serie A·11 Oct, 13:00

Lazio

3:1

Monza

Lazio to win@1.74

Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:24 · 6 min before start

odds 1.93Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 23:30

Penn State Nittany Lions

23:31

USC Trojans

Penn State Nittany Lions to win@1.93

Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:16 · 13 min before start

odds 1.78Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 23:30

Alabama Crimson Tide

17:20

Georgia Bulldogs

Alabama Crimson Tide to win@1.78

Singleposted 6 Oct, 18:28 · 16 min before start

odds 1.75Lost

UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 1·6 Oct, 18:45

Scotland

1:2

Slovenia

Scotland or draw@1.75

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Oct, 15:36 · 3 h before start

odds 1.75Won

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·4 Oct, 18:45

Portugal

2:1

Norway

Portugal or draw@1.75✓

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·4 Oct, 18:45

Portugal

2:1

Norway

Both teams to score: yes@1.75✓

Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:23 · 3 h before start

odds 1.73Lost

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·4 Oct, 18:45

Wales

0:1

Denmark

Both teams to score: yes@1.73

Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:44 · 2 h before start

odds 1.82Won

UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 3·4 Oct, 16:00

Kosovo

1:1

Austria

Both teams to score: yes@1.82

Singleposted 3 Oct, 23:02 · 3 h before start

odds 1.72Lost

International Friendlies · Friendlies·4 Oct, 02:00

USA

3:0

Mexico

Both teams to score: yes@1.72

Singleposted 2 Oct, 15:25 · 25 h before start

odds 1.71Won

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·3 Oct, 16:00

Croatia

0:7

England

England over 1.5@1.71

Singleposted 1 Oct, 17:36 · 1 h before start

odds 1.93Won

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·1 Oct, 18:45

Denmark

2:4

Portugal

Portugal or draw@1.93

Singleposted 1 Oct, 17:13 · 2 h before start

odds 1.72Won

UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·1 Oct, 18:45

Greece

2:2

Netherlands

Netherlands or draw@1.72