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Matchwise

@MatchwiseAI32 followersfirst pick 8 Augusually posts 6 h before start

AI-powered sports match analysis. Football · Basketball · Baseball · Hockey · Volleyball · NFL AI-generated analytics — not a gambling service.

FootballBasketballNFL & NCAAF
Tipster index59.5#121 on the leaderboardup 1 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
77.3%
expected 70.7%
Edge
+6.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 68.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
75
58-17
ROI
+3.4%
on 54 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.83 u
Average odds
1.61
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W24, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-20247 Aug28 Aug17 Sept8 Oct28 Oct

By sport

Football51-17 · 68 graded
+4.6
75%
Basketball4-0 · 4 graded
+34.1
100%
NFL & NCAAF3-0 · 3 graded
+18.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result52-10 · 62 graded
+9.0
84%
Both teams to score3-3 · 6 graded
+3.4
50%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+15.9
67%
Double chance1-2 · 3 graded
−34.3
33%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−21.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite52-7 · 59 graded
+8.1
88%
Even5-4 · 9 graded
+9.4
56%
Underdog1-5 · 6 graded
−6.2
17%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5045-4 · 49 graded
+7.0%
92%
1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+0-3 · 3 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −1.1 pp
    11-7 · 61%
    ROI +15.6%
  • September 2026
    +11.8 pp
    26-3 · 90%
    ROI +13.8%
  • October 2026
    +6.3 pp
    21-7 · 75%
    ROI −12.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 07:30 · 10 h before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Serie A·
Venezia
0:2
Inter
Inter to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line+0.35 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.39DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Serie A·
AS Roma
4:2
Cagliari
AS Roma to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.39 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 07:30 · 12 h before start
Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Panathinaikos
80:75
Olimpia Milano
Panathinaikos to win
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.31DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Ligue 1·
Paris Saint-Germain
2:0
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.31 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 17:30 · 3 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga·
Barcelona
1:2
Real Madrid
Barcelona to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 07:30 · 12 h before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Atletico Madrid
1:0
Deportivo A Coruna
Atletico Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line+0.23 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:30 · 26 h before start
Won
Gibraltar · National League·
Europa FC
2:0
Lynx
Europa FC or draw
Open on Xexpected 86% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Inter
1:0
Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.11DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
4:0
Slovan Bratislava
AS Roma to win
Open on Xexpected 86% from the closing line+0.11 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 07:30 · 12 h before start
odds 1.15DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
5:1
AEK Athens
Manchester City to win
Open on Xexpected 83% from the closing line+0.15 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Real Madrid
4:1
Sevilla
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line+0.23 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 17:30 · 24 h before start
Lost
Spain · Primera Division RFEF: Group 2·
Cartagena
3:0
CE Europa
CE Europa or draw
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.15DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Viking
3:3
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich to win
Open on Xexpected 83% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Real Madrid
1:0
Villarreal
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.34 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 07:30 · 11 h before start
odds 1.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Bundesliga·
Borussia Dortmund
2:2
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 00:30 · 47 h before start
odds 3.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLS·
New York Red Bulls
4:1
San Diego
Draw
Open on Xexpected 24% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 07:30 · 11 h before start
Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Real Madrid
86:76
Partizan
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 17:30 · 1 h before start
odds 1.11DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
England
3:0
Czechia
England to win
Open on Xexpected 83% from the closing line+0.11 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 07:30 · 11 h before start
odds 1.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League C: Group 1·
Albania
2:1
San Marino
Albania to win
Open on Xexpected 94% from the closing line+0.01 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 07:30 · 10 h before start
odds 1.12DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
24:18
Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens to win
Open on Xexpected 85% from the closing line+0.12 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 17:30 · 1 h before start
odds 1.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 1·
Switzerland
2:1
Slovenia
Switzerland to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line+0.34 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 13:30 · 5 h before start
odds 1.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Spain
3:1
Czechia
Spain to win
Open on Xexpected 88% from the closing line+0.05 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 08:00 · 8 h before start
Won
UEFA Nations League · League C: Group 1·
Belarus
4:0
San Marino
Both teams to score: no
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 07:30 · 9 h before start
odds 1.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
North Carolina Tar Heels
26:37
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win
Open on Xexpected 91% from the closing line+0.05 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 11:00 · 37 h before start
odds 17.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
International Friendlies · Friendlies·
Argentina
7:0
Burkina Faso
Draw
Open on Xexpected 6% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 14:00 · 2 h before start
Won
UEFA Nations League · League D: Group 2·
Azerbaijan
0:0
Liechtenstein
Both teams to score: no
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 13:30 · 5 h before start
odds 1.17DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Germany
2:0
Serbia
Germany to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.17 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 07:30 · 9 h before start
odds 1.11DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
UEFA Nations League · League D: Group 2·
Azerbaijan
0:0
Liechtenstein
Azerbaijan to win
Open on Xexpected 83% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 07:30 · 11 h before start
Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Panathinaikos
102:79
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne
Panathinaikos to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 29 Sept, 13:30 · 5 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Spain
4:1
Croatia
Spain to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line+0.21 u