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DFS BEAST

@DfsBeast528 followersfirst pick 10 Octusually posts 9 h before start

Helping DFS players build smarter tournament lineups. Research-Ownership-Stacking-Bankroll Management. Free DFS GPP checklist!!!BJUH2Z

NFL & NCAAFTennisFootballBasketballHockeyBaseball
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Tipster index32.4#715 on the leaderboarddown 38 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
31.8%
expected 52.6%
Edge
−20.8 pp
hit rate at most 49.3% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
22
7-15
ROI
−57.8%
on 18 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.66 u
Average odds
1.97
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W2, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2010 Oct15 Oct19 Oct24 Oct29 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-6 · 9 graded
−21.7
33%
Tennis0-4 · 4 graded
−51.0
0%
Football2-1 · 3 graded
+10.5
67%
Baseball0-2 · 2 graded
−51.4
0%
Basketball2-0 · 2 graded
+46.7
100%
Hockey0-2 · 2 graded
−40.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals3-6 · 9 graded
−18.8
33%
Handicap3-6 · 9 graded
−18.3
33%
Match result1-3 · 4 graded
−30.7
25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-1 · 4 graded
+3.8
75%
Even4-13 · 17 graded
−26.1
24%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−29.0
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.890-8 · 8 graded
−100.0%
0%
1.90…2.293-4 · 7 graded
−9.7%
43%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −20.8 pp
    7-15 · 32%
    ROI −57.8%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:04 · 16 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
111:117
San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz +11.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:04 · 17 h before start
odds 2.25DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLS·
Seattle Sounders FC
0:1
Houston Dynamo
Under 2.5
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line+1.25 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 09:03 · 9 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Taylor Fritz
2:0
Rinky Hijikata
Taylor Fritz −4.5@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 09:04 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Alexander Zverev
2:1
Martin Landaluce
Alexander Zverev −4.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 09:04 · 8 h before start
odds 2.08Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
29:20
San Francisco 49ers
Over 50.5@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 09:03 · 14 h before start
odds 2.12Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
108:101
LA Clippers
LA Clippers +14.5@2.12
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.12 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 09:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Over 42.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:03 · 17 h before start
odds 3.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
6:2
Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames to win
Open on Xexpected 29% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:03 · 17 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
6:2
Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames +1.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 09:03 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:06 · 15 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Over 6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:06 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Zverev
2:1
Alexander Bublik
Alexander Zverev −2.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:06 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Zverev
2:1
Alexander Bublik
Under 24.5 games@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 09:03 · 15 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 09:03 · 10 h before start
Won
Serie A·
Torino
2:1
Udinese
Over 1.5
Open on Xexpected 86% by model
Singleposted 12 Oct, 09:03 · 5 h before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga 2·
Burgos CF
0:1
Granada
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:03 · 8 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +2.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:03 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans +7@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 09:04 · 3 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Under 54.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 09:04 · 35 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 09:04 · 32 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u