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Bourbon Barrel Picks

@BourbonBarPicks176 followersfirst pick 2 Octusually posts 1 h before start

It's like a barrel-select pour for your bankroll. Stop watering down your strategy—join the club that serves up straight-from-the-barrel winners.

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballBaseball
Tipster index32.5#714 on the leaderboarddown 36 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 2

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
North Texas Mean Green
-:-
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic Owls +14.5@1.83
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
-:-
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans to win@1.74
Hit rate
34.5%
expected 52.3%
Edge
−17.8 pp
hit rate at most 49.7% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
30
10-19-1 · 2 pending
ROI
−35.6%
on 30 picks with odds · max drawdown −15.02 u
Average odds
1.83
singles with odds
Form
streak W5 · best W5, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-8-6-4-201 Oct8 Oct15 Oct22 Oct29 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-8-1 · 13 graded
−19.1
33%
Hockey2-5 · 7 graded
−25.0
29%
Basketball4-2 · 6 graded
+13.8
67%
Baseball0-4 · 4 graded
−49.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap8-8-1 · 17 graded
−2.4
50%
Match result2-11 · 13 graded
−36.8
15%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even10-18-1 · 29 graded
−17.1
36%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−38.1
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.898-15-1 · 24 graded
−36.0%
35%
1.90…2.292-3 · 5 graded
−21.0%
40%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −17.8 pp
    10-19-1 · 34%
    ROI −35.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 21:42 · 4 days before start
odds 1.74Pending
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
-:-
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds
Singleposted 28 Oct, 21:42 · 26 h before start
odds 1.83Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
North Texas Mean Green
-:-
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic Owls +14.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds
Singleposted 28 Oct, 21:42 · 1 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
117:129
Miami Heat
Miami Heat +3.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 21:42 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
109:114
Philadelphia 76ers
Indiana Pacers +5.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 21:42 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Seattle Kraken to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 23:15 · 44 min before start
odds 1.77Won
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
111:97
Detroit Pistons
New York Knicks −2.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 23:15 · 44 min before start
odds 1.95Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
1:5
New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:15 · 5 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
110:102
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers −2.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:15 · 5 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles +6@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:15 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
127:125
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:15 · 6 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
105:110
Memphis Grizzlies
Utah Jazz to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:15 · 5 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:15 · 4 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
3:6
Los Angeles Kings
New York Rangers to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:15 · 5 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
5:2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:41 · 1 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 23:55 · 25 min before start
odds 1.69Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −3@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 23:55 · 25 min before start
odds 2.25Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:04 · 55 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills −6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:04 · 55 min before start
odds 1.74Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
36:24
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants +3@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:04 · 4 h before start
odds 1.74Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers −2.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:04 · 55 min before start
odds 1.83Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14:17
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:21 · 9 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts −4@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:57 · 1 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
0:3
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:57 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
14:31
Ohio State Buckeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:57 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Florida Gators −5.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:57 · 2 min before start
odds 1.80Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa State Cyclones
45:42
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:57 · 1 h before start
odds 2.50Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
0:3
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians −1.5@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 22:29 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 22:29 · 30 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Virginia Tech Hokies to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 22:29 · 30 min before start
odds 1.69Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
2:5
Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u