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Cover The Slate

@CoverTheSlate255 followersfirst pick 18 Augusually posts 10 h before start

Smarter DFS picks + sports betting analysis without hours of research. Daily slate breakdowns, best bets & strategy ↓

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballBaseball
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Tipster index45.8#608 on the leaderboardup 21 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
48.4%
expected 51.2%
Edge
−2.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
98
47-50-1
ROI
−21.3%
on 58 picks with odds · max drawdown −14.63 u
Average odds
1.86
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W5, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2017 Aug6 Sept26 Sept16 Oct5 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF34-41-1 · 76 graded
−5.1
45%
Hockey7-4 · 11 graded
+8.0
64%
Basketball4-5 · 9 graded
−7.6
44%
Baseball2-0 · 2 graded
+49.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap23-24-1 · 48 graded
−3.4
49%
Totals15-16 · 31 graded
−4.3
48%
Match result6-6 · 12 graded
−6.9
50%
Parlays2-4 · 6 graded
+9.9
33%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+47.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-5-1 · 17 graded
+1.5
69%
Even33-40 · 73 graded
−5.1
45%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+10.0
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.8911-13 · 24 graded
−17.3%
46%
1.90…2.2912-19 · 31 graded
−25.3%
39%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −24.5 pp
    1-3 · 25%
  • September 2026
    −1.4 pp
    18-20 · 47%
    ROI −18.6%
  • October 2026
    −6.1 pp
    20-24-1 · 45%
    ROI −23.3%
  • November 2026
    +13.9 pp
    8-3 · 73%
    ROI −4.7%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:56 · 4 h before start
odds 1.93DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Denver Nuggets
128:109
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors +4.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:56 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
114:104
Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn Nets +3.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:56 · 4 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Phoenix Suns
119:132
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:56 · 2 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
105:120
Atlanta Hawks
Under 230.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 4 Nov, 21:56 · 3 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
135:105
Chicago Bulls
Under 233.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 20:53 · 4 h before start
odds 1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Florida Panthers
5:3
Chicago Blackhawks
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line+0.38 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 20:53 · 6 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
2:1
Calgary Flames
Seattle Kraken to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 20:53 · 6 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Los Angeles Kings
7:2
San Jose Sharks
Los Angeles Kings to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.60 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 20:53 · 4 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:2
Ottawa Senators
Buffalo Sabres to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:56 · 19 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
34:26
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern Wildcats +4
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:56 · 41 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
43:36
Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:56 · 22 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa State Cyclones
51:49
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State Cowboys −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:56 · 41 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
30:33
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals +4
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:56 · 19 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
23:16
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota Golden Gophers +20.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 00:56 · 15 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Duke Blue Devils
47:2
Boston College Eagles
Boston College Eagles +7.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 30 Oct, 15:36 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCF Knights
9:41
Baylor Bears
Baylor Bears −1.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 22:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:0
Calgary Flames
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 22:44 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 22:02 · 2 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs −3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 22:00 · 59 min before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
16:19
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 22:00 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
28:14
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons −5.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:52 · 1 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Under 50.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 18 Oct, 11:39 · 13 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 52.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers −1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:36 · 9 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:36 · 5 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:33 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Under 42.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 11:58 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 11:58 · 8 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Missouri Tigers +5.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 11:58 · 11 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
6:17
TCU Horned Frogs
Baylor Bears −5.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:41 · 7 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas State Bobcats
66:27
Colorado State Rams
Over 42.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model