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vel

@veIytics1.7K followersfirst pick 2 Septusually posts 23 min before start

numbers are the blueprint.

NFL & NCAAFFootballBasketballBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index50.5#333 on the leaderboarddown 149 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
45.5%
expected 44.9%
Edge
+0.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 29.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
22
10-12
ROI
−7.0%
on 21 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.34 u
Average odds
2.48
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W3, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1011 Sept14 Sept27 Sept10 Oct22 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF6-2 · 8 graded
+28.5
75%
Football2-5 · 7 graded
−11.1
29%
Basketball2-4 · 6 graded
−16.3
33%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−40.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result8-11 · 19 graded
−1.2
42%
Handicap2-0 · 2 graded
+48.6
100%
Totals0-1 · 1 graded
−61.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-3 · 3 graded
−62.5
0%
Even9-3 · 12 graded
+25.0
75%
Underdog1-6 · 7 graded
−14.3
14%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.896-2 · 8 graded
+33.5%
75%
1.90…2.293-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
2.30…3.491-5 · 6 graded
−55.0%
17%
3.50+0-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +8.5 pp
    6-6 · 50%
    ROI +1.1%
  • October 2026
    −9.0 pp
    4-6 · 40%
    ROI −17.7%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:46 · 13 min before start
odds 1.77Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:52 · 8 min before start
odds 3.00Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors to win@3.00
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:33 · 27 min before start
odds 2.20Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:42 · 18 min before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:54 · 5 min before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Under 112
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:54 · 5 min before start
odds 2.05Won
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:06 · 19 min before start
odds 3.20Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals to win@3.20
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 21:33 · 3 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:14 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 14:08 · 6 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 00:07 · 8 min before start
odds 2.70Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
27:7
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears to win@2.70
Open on Xexpected 35% from odds+1.70 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 00:07 · 8 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
27:7
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears +4.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 28 Sept, 08:32 · 10 h before start
odds 1.83Won
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Belgium
0:1
France
France to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 28 Sept, 08:22 · 8 h before start
odds 2.65Lost
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 2·
Georgia
0:0
Ukraine
Georgia to win@2.65
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Sept, 00:17 · 2 min before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 07:36 · 9 h before start
odds 2.10Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
19:17
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 18:00 · 7 h before start
odds 2.35Lost
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
3:5
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies to win@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 20:49 · 3 days before start
odds 6.50Lost
Premier League·
Liverpool
0:0
Fulham
Fulham to win@6.50
Open on Xexpected 15% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 18:41 · 19 min before start
odds 5.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Sporting CP
3:1
Galatasaray
Galatasaray to win
Open on Xexpected 19% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 18:41 · 19 min before start
odds 1.66DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Napoli
0:1
Arsenal
Arsenal to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.66 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 18:22 · 38 min before start
odds 1.47DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga·
Real Betis
1:0
Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 17:18 · 2 h before start
odds 2.80Lost
Championship·
Burnley
1:1
Middlesbrough
Burnley to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u